Britain faces a looming fiscal crisis, attributed largely to recent immigration policies that critics say have overwhelmed public finances and welfare systems. According to an analysis by the Centre for Policy Studies, the "Boriswave"—a term coined to describe the surge in low-skilled, non-EU immigration during Boris Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister—could cost British taxpayers at least £234 billion over time. This figure is significant, corresponding to approximately four times the UK’s entire defence budget and more than double the education budget.

The controversy centres on the granting of Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) to around 800,000 migrants starting from 2026. ILR bestows lifetime access to the welfare state, including social housing and benefits, without the obligation to work. The Centre for Policy Studies argues that roughly half of these migrants may never enter the workforce, thereby placing substantial long-term fiscal strain on public resources. The Boriswave migrants, it contends, are predominantly low-skilled workers rather than high-skilled professionals such as scientists or doctors, with many poised to bring family members who will also claim welfare benefits.

Government figures highlight the scale of migration over recent years, with 3.8 million long-term visas issued largely to non-EU nationals. Particularly striking is the Department for Health and Social Care’s initial 2023 estimate of issuing 6,000 social care visas, contrasted with the actual number of 348,000—58 times higher than anticipated. Moreover, over half of these visa holders were dependants, further swelling numbers relying on public services.

The fiscal concerns arise as the British taxpayer spent £266 billion on welfare last year, with £52 billion allocated to Universal Credit alone, of which nearly £9 billion was paid to foreign nationals. Data reveals that one in six Universal Credit claimants is a foreign national, a statistic used by critics to assert that the current immigration system prioritises migrants over the indigenous workforce and welfare recipients.

In response, political factions such as Reform UK have proposed radical reforms to immigration policy. Their plan calls for the complete abolition of ILR, including the retrospective withdrawal of existing ILR status—a move that would transform settlement rights into time-limited, five-year renewable work visas with strict eligibility criteria, including higher salary thresholds and limited rights to bring dependants. Crucially, these visas would deny access to welfare benefits.

Reform UK also advocates for extending the citizenship qualifying period to seven years and introducing an Acute Skills Shortage Visa (ASSV), tightly controlled and linked to employer-funded training commitments designed to upskill the domestic workforce. The party declares an end to the era of “cheap foreign labour,” aiming to prioritise British workers and reduce dependency on low-skilled immigration.

However, recent official statistics indicate a contrasting trend within sectors like healthcare and social care, where staff shortages remain acute. The UK Home Office reported a record 106,000 visas issued to social care workers in 2023, excluding dependants, with health and care visas representing 75% of all long-term Skilled Worker visa grants. This surge reflects the public sector's reliance on overseas workers to fill critical vacancies.

Conversely, stricter visa rules introduced in early 2024 have led to a sharp decline in health and social care visa applications. Recent figures reveal an 81% decrease in such visas granted for the year ending June 2024 and an 83% drop in applications for health and care workers in March 2024 alone. The government's ban on dependants accompanying these workers is cited as a major factor discouraging applicants, raising fears of worsening staff shortages in an already fragile care sector.

In parallel, the UK government has ramped up enforcement against employer abuses of foreign workers, particularly in social care, with tougher sanctions implemented against firms violating visa and labour regulations. These enforcement measures, aimed at protecting migrant workers from exploitation, include extended bans on hiring foreign labour for offending employers.

The situation presents a complex balancing act for policymakers. On one hand, critics argue that mass low-skilled immigration underpins a burgeoning welfare burden and competes with British workers for scarce jobs. On the other, successive governments must grapple with genuine workforce shortages in essential sectors like social care, where migrant labour remains critical.

While Reform UK's proposals promise fiscal savings and a reassertion of national sovereignty over immigration, there is substantial concern among health and social care stakeholders that more restrictive policies could precipitate service breakdowns and exacerbate workforce gaps.

As Britain confronts the intertwined challenges of immigration policy, welfare sustainability, and labour market needs, the debate underscores the difficulties of aligning economic priorities with social justice and operational realities in public services.

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Source: Noah Wire Services