As UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves prepares for the forthcoming autumn Budget, the challenge of bridging a looming fiscal gap without breaching Labour’s manifesto commitments has prompted calls for sweeping tax reforms rather than mere tax rate increases. Leading economists and think tanks, most notably the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), have urged Ms Reeves to pursue genuine structural changes aimed at improving fairness and efficiency within the tax system, rather than relying on “directionless tinkering and half-baked fixes,” according to the IFS.

Facing an estimated shortfall in public finances potentially reaching tens of billions of pounds by 2029-30, Ms Reeves must steer carefully. The IFS highlights various reforms that could raise substantial revenue without violating the party’s pledge not to increase the “big three” taxes—income tax, national insurance contributions (NICs), and VAT—especially for working people. Among the options are abolishing capital gains tax relief on death, which would raise around £2.3 billion by 2029-30, tightening inheritance tax by removing the additional £175,000 allowance on primary residences to net approximately £6 billion, and doubling council tax rates on top-end properties to generate about £4.4 billion. The Institute also recommends bolstering bank levies and surcharges, measures expected to contribute billions more by the mid-2020s.

Notably, these reforms address perceived inefficiencies and regressivities in the current system. For example, council tax remains based on property values from 1991, leading to outdated and arguably unfair bandings that disproportionally affect taxpayers. The IFS advocates for replacing stamp duty and council tax with a new recurrent property tax reflecting present-day property values, with a focus on shifting tax burdens towards areas like London, where house price growth has been strongest. Conversely, the think tank opposes an annual wealth tax, citing its potential to penalise savers and distort economic behaviour, favouring instead a single “one-off” wealth levy that could raise revenue without some of the drawbacks.

The wider fiscal context adds complexity. Recent reports suggest Ms Reeves aims to increase the fiscal buffer beyond the nearly £10 billion initially targeted to protect against economic shocks such as borrowing cost volatility and downgraded growth forecasts. This effort follows a previously announced £40 billion tax rise, raising questions about the scale and nature of forthcoming revenue measures. Treasury sources acknowledge that higher taxes or spending cuts may be essential, while economists warn that without reform, simple tax increases could damage growth prospects.

The debate extends to whether strict adherence to Labour’s tax pledges is feasible. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) argues that breaching the manifesto promise not to raise income tax on working people might be necessary and economically preferable to alternatives that risk deterring investment or causing greater GDP losses. From their perspective, income tax increases, though potentially unpopular, represent a more efficient revenue tool given its broad base compared to wealth taxes or VAT hikes.

Meanwhile, business confidence is fragile. A survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) indicates employers remain cautious about hiring and wage increases ahead of the Budget, affected in part by previous social security contribution rises. Calls have been made to avoid new corporate taxes that could further undermine recruitment and investment.

Recent moves in the Budget reveal some of these tensions. For example, Ms Reeves has announced increases in capital gains tax rates—boosting the lower rate from 10% to 18% and the higher rate from 20% to 24%, with the tax on private equity ‘carried interest’ rising to 32%. She has also raised employers’ NICs to 15%, frozen the inheritance tax threshold, and scrapped non-dom status in favour of a residence-based scheme. Speculation around a capital gains tax rise to as high as 39% was officially denied by the finance ministry. Capital gains tax currently accounts for less than 2% of total tax revenue and is paid by fewer than 1% of adults in Britain, reflecting its potential leverage if reformed.

In summary, economists see the autumn Budget as a critical juncture. The consensus among experts interviewed by Reuters and others is clear: Ms Reeves must resist simple tax hikes and instead capitalise on the opportunity to enact meaningful and durable tax reforms that enhance fairness, efficiency, and resilience in the UK’s public finances. This approach, they argue, offers a pathway to safeguarding investment and living standards while addressing an increasingly precarious fiscal outlook.

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Source: Noah Wire Services