Productivity remains the cornerstone of economic prosperity, with its disparities across the UK's regions shedding light on persistent inequalities and uneven growth. The recently released Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for 2023 extends a two-decade-long time series on subregional productivity, providing fresh insights into the entrenched gap between London and other major UK cities. This gap is central to understanding why regions such as the Midlands and the North lag economically behind the South East and London, contributing substantially to the nation's sluggish economic growth and enduring geographic inequality.

London continues to dominate the UK’s productivity landscape, with output per hour worked approximately 28.5% above the national average, according to the ONS. The South East also performs strongly, standing 7.7% above the UK average. By contrast, regions including Wales, the West Midlands, East Midlands, and the North East fall below this benchmark. Notably, the North West distinguished itself by delivering the largest positive contribution to productivity growth since 2019, while London's productivity slightly declined in the same period. These variations illuminate a complex picture of economic performance—while some areas progress, others struggle to keep pace.

Delving deeper into the causes of these disparities, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) underscores the profound differences in productivity and earnings within the UK. London's productivity is reported to be between one-third and one-half higher than the UK average, driving overall higher wages. However, this high productivity masks sharp inequalities within the city itself; a significant proportion of Londoners live in poverty despite robust economic output. In contrast, Wales consistently records the lowest productivity and earnings levels, remaining around 15% below the UK average. This juxtaposition of regional and intra-regional inequality highlights the complexity of addressing economic disparities.

Looking ahead, economic forecasts paint a picture of continued divergence. EY's UK Regional Economic Forecast for 2024 projects that London and the South East will experience faster Gross Value Added (GVA) growth, at 2.1% and 2% annually respectively, outpacing the UK's overall growth rate of 1.9% between 2024 and 2027. These two regions accounted for 39% of the UK’s total GVA in 2023, with expectations to rise to 40% by 2027. Such projections suggest that without targeted interventions, London's economic primacy—and the gulf in prosperity—may continue to widen.

However, there are promising signs of progress in other parts of the country. The Northern Powerhouse Partnership highlights Greater Manchester’s notable success, with a 31% rise in GVA per hour worked over the past two decades, making it the UK’s productivity growth leader by this measure. Investments in public transport and infrastructure alongside devolution of powers to the city’s metro mayor have been credited for this progress, indicating that strategic governance and infrastructure development can help close the productivity gap.

The Productivity Institute’s insights on the 2025 ONS subregional productivity estimates agree that while London and the South East remain top performers, some regions such as the North West and Northern Ireland have shown strong productivity growth since 2019, signaling a nuanced pattern of regional convergence. Yet, regions like Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, and the North East have experienced relatively weaker productivity growth, underscoring persistent disparities.

These findings align with the broader international perspective outlined in the OECD’s 2023 Regional Outlook, which notes that regional inequalities have not only persisted but, in many cases, have widened across OECD countries over the last twenty years. The enduring geography of inequalities, particularly driven by productivity differences, demands policy responses that are geographically targeted and capable of fostering balanced regional economic development.

In summary, although London and the South East continue to drive the national economy with considerably higher productivity levels than much of the rest of the UK, emerging data provides cautious optimism that some regions—most notably Greater Manchester and the North West—are starting to narrow the gap. Nevertheless, the pace of change is uneven, and addressing deep-rooted disparities in productivity remains essential to enhancing the UK’s overall economic health and ensuring a more equitable distribution of prosperity across its cities.

📌 Reference Map:

Source: Noah Wire Services