Housing Secretary Steve Reed’s enduring optimism about the government’s ambition to deliver 1.5 million new homes by 2029 continues, despite widespread scepticism. Sporting his trademark red baseball cap emblazoned with "Build, Baby, Build," Reed appears almost alone in believing the target of 300,000 new properties annually is achievable. This lingering doubt has begun to cast a shadow over the outlook for housebuilder shares, which have been sharply impacted by falling buyer demand, rising labour and material costs, and wider economic headwinds.
The status of housebuilder shares has been notably subdued since the last general election, with the FTSE 350 Household Goods and Construction index falling by 32 per cent. Major housebuilders such as Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Taylor Wimpey, and Vistry now trade at significant discounts to their book values, sometimes as much as 20-30 per cent below, whereas in prior years these shares were valued at up to twice book value. Even the largest player, Barratt Redrow, has seen a 20 per cent share price decline over six months amid slowing home bookings exacerbated by fears of upcoming tax increases. In response, some companies have introduced loan products aimed at easing deposits for first-time buyers, reflecting the growing affordability challenge faced by younger generations, often without parental financial support.
At the heart of this housing and market malaise sits Chancellor Rachel Reeves, under pressure to recalibrate government policy. Labour’s election promises positioned the pledge to overcome entrenched local opposition (commonly termed Nimbyism) and make homeownership more accessible as central to their appeal, especially among younger voters. Reeves’s forthcoming Budget is widely anticipated as an opportunity to inject fresh impetus into housing development, possibly through reintroducing a variant of the controversial Help to Buy scheme that was withdrawn last year. The original Help to Buy scheme had proved effective in stimulating housebuilding from 2013 onwards, supporting around 40,000 annual purchases, though it drew criticism for inflating housebuilder profits and executive bonuses dramatically.
Industry experts remain divided on the prospects of revived buyer incentives. Property analyst Oli Creasey noted the political risks but suggested that failing to meet the 1.5 million homes target could inflict serious reputational damage on the government. He forecast that some form of Help to Buy would likely return, and predicted its earlier introduction would enhance its impact. Without such demand stimulation, housebuilders’ confidence to increase output beyond current levels remains fragile. Meanwhile, Gary Channon, manager of the Aurora UK Alpha investment trust, emphasises that planning reforms designed to streamline approvals will not yield increased construction for at least three years, reinforcing the need for immediate demand-side stimulus.
The government has committed significant funding aimed at social and affordable housing expansion. A £2 billion package announced recently targets the delivery of up to 18,000 affordable homes in England, with construction starting in 2027 and completion expected by 2029. This programme forms a cornerstone of the Labour Party's housing policies intended to address the pressing shortage and improve homeownership affordability. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that ongoing planning reforms will, by 2029-30, raise housebuilding to a 40-year peak and add an estimated 170,000 homes, contributing an uplift of roughly £6.8 billion to GDP. However, despite these reforms, the OBR anticipates the government will only achieve around 1.3 million homes, falling short of the official 1.5 million target.
The housing market’s broader economic environment is uneasy. Building materials supplier Travis Perkins recently reported a 23 per cent fall in annual profits and has lowered profit forecasts for 2025 due to subdued construction demand and persistently high borrowing costs. The ongoing weakness in the housing sector reflects both the affordability crunch for buyers and the costs facing industry players. Nonetheless, some analysts see value emerging in the sector. Shares in leading housebuilders such as Barratt Redrow, Bellway, and Persimmon are rated as buys, buoyed by attractive dividend yields of around 5 per cent, and potential upside if government incentives are renewed or interest rates decline. Taylor Wimpey, despite a significant decade-long share price decline, is forecast to outperform peers with a notable 8.8 per cent dividend yield.
However, not all firms are equally well-positioned. Vistry, an affordable housing specialist, has issued successive profit warnings in 2024 and offers no dividend, leading to a more cautious rating. Others, like Crest Nicholson, still wrestle with costs related to cladding remediation but have shown signs of a potential turnaround.
At its core, investment in housebuilders reflects enduring belief in homeownership as a fundamental aspiration for many Britons. Political gestures, such as ministers donning hard hats, underscore the symbolic nature of the housing challenge. Yet delivering on these promises remains an intricate task for industry professionals and policymakers alike.
📌 Reference Map:
- [1] (Daily Mail) - Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- [2] (UK Government/OBR) - Paragraphs 5, 6
- [3] (Reuters) - Paragraph 5
- [4] (Reuters) - Paragraph 6
- [5] (UK Government) - Paragraph 5
- [6] (Reuters) - Paragraph 6
- [7] (Evening Standard) - Paragraph 6
Source: Noah Wire Services