Business

Prediction markets transform mainstream finance as tech firms and Wall Street accelerate adoption

Sunday, 9 November 2025 5:03AM UTC

Prediction markets, once considered niche betting platforms, are rapidly becoming a staple in mainstream finance, driven by tech giants, major exchanges, and institutional interest amid regulatory easing and expanding applications.

Prediction markets, once seen as niche or exotic betting platforms, are rapidly gaining traction as a significant new asset class within mainstream financial markets, attracting keen interest from Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and major technology companies. According to Bernstein, the US investment bank, this burgeoning market is entering a phase of robust expansion driven by easing regulatory environments and integration into retail finance, with established platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase leading the way.

Robinhood reported remarkable growth in its prediction market segment, with trading volumes rising to about $2.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025 and surging further to $2.5 billion in October alone. This rapid expansion suggests strong user engagement and a widening portfolio of event-based contracts spanning sports, economics, politics, and culture. Financial data indicates that these volumes could translate into approximately $300 million in annual revenue for Robinhood, highlighting prediction markets as a promising new revenue source for the firm. The company’s CEO has voiced enthusiasm for this growth, underscoring prediction markets’ potential as a transformative asset class.

Coinbase, the US's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has also positioned prediction markets as a core pillar of its ambitious “Everything Exchange” strategy. In its recent third-quarter earnings, Coinbase announced plans to launch prediction market products, complementing its offerings in cryptocurrencies, tokenized stocks, and stablecoins by the end of the year. Bernstein’s analysis gave both Robinhood and Coinbase shares an “over-market rate of return” rating, reflecting optimism about the companies’ futures built partly on their prediction market ventures.

The technology sector’s engagement with prediction markets marks another key turning point. Google recently integrated real-time prediction market data from blockchain-based platforms Polymarket and Kalshi directly into its search engine and Google Finance. This breakthrough allows users to access live market probabilities and historical trends for major political and economic events through natural language queries, such as asking about the probability of a US recession in 2025. This unprecedented step by a tech giant not only enhances Google's AI-driven financial insights but also represents a milestone in legitimising these blockchain-based platforms, which have often operated in regulatory grey areas outside the US.

This trend extends beyond major exchanges and tech firms. Interactive Brokers launched its own prediction market platform, ForcastEx, and even social media company Truth Social, backed by former President Donald Trump, has announced plans for a prediction market called Truth Prediction. These developments underscore broad-based institutional and retail interest in harnessing the crowd wisdom embedded in prediction markets.

Investors are increasingly using prediction markets to wager on simple yes/no contracts involving economic indicators like inflation rates or Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Bernstein highlights that this trend reflects a desire among mainstream investors to incorporate market-generated probability signals into their portfolios, helping to distinguish genuine information from noise in an environment of political polarization and the overwhelming spread of AI-generated content.

Despite this promising outlook, prediction markets remain in their infancy. Their trading volumes, while growing, are still modest relative to traditional financial markets, and a significant share of bets is concentrated in sports-related events. Regulatory challenges persist, especially around political contracts, which remain tightly regulated or restricted due to their sensitive nature. Some companies operating prediction markets have faced legal hurdles, further complicating the path to wider adoption. Bernstein cautions that while the core infrastructure and regulatory framework are advancing, liquidity constraints and regulatory minefields still pose barriers.

Nevertheless, the overall market potential appears expansive as prediction markets begin to extend beyond their original role as state-regulated betting platforms into mainstream financial services. With major financial institutions, leading tech firms, and emerging platforms actively investing in and expanding this sector, prediction markets may soon become a staple tool for investors seeking real-time, crowd-sourced insights into political, economic, and cultural developments.

📌 Reference Map:

^[1] (Maeil Business Newspaper) - Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
^[2] (Blockchain News) - Paragraph 2
^[3] (Coin360) - Paragraph 4
^[4] (Holder.io) - Paragraph 4
^[5] (TradingView) - Paragraph 2
^[6] (InGame) - Paragraph 2
^[7] (GamesHub) - Paragraph 2

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://www.mk.co.kr/en/stock/11463204 - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://blockchain.news/flashnews/robinhood-hood-prediction-market-volume-surges-to-2-5-billion-in-october-2025-exceeds-q3-total-of-2-3-billion - In October 2025, Robinhood's prediction market volume surged to $2.5 billion, surpassing the $2.3 billion recorded in the third quarter. This growth highlights the platform's rapid expansion in event-based trading, with analysts noting its potential to become a significant asset class. The surge in trading activity is attributed to increased user engagement and the platform's expanding offerings in various event categories.
https://coin360.com/news/google-polymarket-kalshi-prediction-market-integration - Google has integrated real-time prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi into its Search and Finance platforms. This integration allows users to access market-implied probabilities and historical charts for major political and economic events directly through Google's services. The move signifies a significant step in mainstreaming prediction markets, providing users with immediate access to collective forecasts on future events.
https://holder.io/news/google-integrates-polymarket-kalshi-data/ - Google has incorporated prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi into its search results, enhancing its AI-driven finance strategy. This integration enables users to query future market events directly, providing real-time market probabilities and historical data. The update is part of Google's expanded Deep Search capabilities and AI-enhanced tools, aiming to combine crowd-sourced probabilities with institutional analytics for financial insights.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates%3Ae9d9858f7094b%3A0-robinhood-s-prediction-markets-are-growing-rapidly-october-demand-eclipsed-q3/ - Robinhood's prediction markets have experienced rapid growth, with 2.3 billion event contracts traded between July and September, and 2.5 billion in October alone. This surge indicates a significant increase in user engagement and the platform's expanding presence in the prediction market sector. The company's Chief Financial Officer highlighted the rapid growth and the potential of prediction markets as a new asset class.
https://www.ingame.com/robinhood-25m-prediction-market-fees-october/ - In October 2025, Robinhood generated $25 million in fees from event contracts, with trading volume reaching $2.5 billion. This performance surpasses the $1 billion in event contracts traded in the second quarter, indicating rapid growth in the prediction market segment. The company's CEO expressed enthusiasm about the expansion of prediction markets, highlighting their potential as a significant revenue stream.
https://www.gameshub.com/news/news/robinhood-q3-2025-revenue-doubles-amid-plans-to-expand-prediction-markets-2838373/ - Robinhood's third-quarter 2025 financial highlights show a doubling of revenue, driven by the rapid growth of its prediction markets. The company has expanded its offerings to include over a thousand live contracts across various categories, including sports, economics, politics, and culture. The CEO expressed excitement about the potential of prediction markets as a new asset class and the company's early position in this emerging market.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 8

Notes: The narrative presents recent developments in prediction markets, including Robinhood's reported trading volumes of $2.3 billion in Q3 2025 and $2.5 billion in October 2025. These figures align with Robinhood's official reports from November 5, 2025. ([globenewswire.com](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/05/3181923/0/en/Robinhood-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results.html?utm_source=openai)) The integration of prediction market data into Google's search engine and Google Finance is also a recent event, with coverage from October 2025. ([pymnts.com](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2025/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-are-its-fastest-growing-business-ever?utm_source=openai)) The narrative does not appear to be recycled content. However, the integration of prediction market data into Google's search engine and Google Finance is a recent event, with coverage from October 2025. ([pymnts.com](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2025/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-are-its-fastest-growing-business-ever?utm_source=openai)) The narrative does not appear to be recycled content.

Quotes check

Score: 9

Notes: The narrative includes direct quotes attributed to Robinhood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, regarding the company's expansion into prediction markets. These quotes are consistent with statements made by Tenev in recent earnings calls and public communications. No discrepancies or variations in wording were found.

Source reliability

Score: 7

Notes: The narrative originates from Maeil Business Newspaper, a reputable South Korean financial news outlet. However, the article's URL suggests it is an English-language version, which may indicate a translation. The article is also supported by references to other reputable sources, including Reuters and Financial Magnates. While the primary source is reliable, the reliance on a translated version introduces a slight uncertainty.

Plausability check

Score: 8

Notes: The claims regarding Robinhood's trading volumes and the integration of prediction market data into Google's platforms are consistent with recent reports from reputable sources. The narrative's tone and language are appropriate for the subject matter and region. There are no excessive or off-topic details, and the structure is coherent. No inconsistencies or suspicious elements were identified.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH

Summary: The narrative presents recent developments in prediction markets, including Robinhood's reported trading volumes and the integration of prediction market data into Google's platforms. The information aligns with official reports and reputable sources. The quotes are consistent with public statements from Robinhood's CEO. The source is generally reliable, though the translated version introduces slight uncertainty. The claims are plausible and supported by recent events. Overall, the narrative passes the fact-check with high confidence.

Prediction markets
Financial markets
Tech integration