Business

High streets brace for crisis as tax hikes threaten thousands of pub and shop closures

Sunday, 16 November 2025 5:04AM UTC

Britain’s high streets face a potential seismic shift as escalating taxes and costs put over 2,000 pubs and countless independent retailers at risk of closure, prompting urgent calls for fiscal reform ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Britain's high streets are facing a potentially devastating crisis as thousands of pubs and independent retailers confront closure and significant job losses due to escalating tax burdens and rising operational costs. The looming Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26, has become a focal point for concern among industry leaders who warn of a "bloodbath" unless urgent tax relief measures are introduced.

The British Beer and Pubs Association (BBPA) and UK Hospitality have raised alarms about the cumulative impact of tax hikes over the past year, stressing that more than 2,000 pubs could close, resulting in the loss of over 12,000 jobs. Kate Nicholls, chair of UK Hospitality, described the situation as “make or break,” noting that the sector has endured 13 consecutive months of falling employment and has seen 170,000 fewer people on payrolls nationwide since last year’s Budget. With two venues reportedly closing every day and the sector accounting for over half of recent job losses across the economy, the risks to community livelihoods and high street vibrancy are profound.

This grim outlook is compounded by the end of business rates relief and a revaluation of commercial properties scheduled for next year, which are expected to nearly double rates bills for many hospitality businesses. Emma McClarkin, BBPA chief executive, highlighted that current projections point to business rates increases of over 50% for pubs, a burden exacerbated by rising energy costs, national insurance contributions, and wage inflation driven by statutory minimum wage increases.

Recent data from commercial property analysts corroborates the scale of the crisis: 383 pubs closed in just the first half of 2023, matching almost the total number of closures for the entire previous year. Industry figures warn that the planned removal of a 75% business rates discount for pubs, relief currently capped at £110,000 but set to expire in March 2024, could accelerate this closure trend further. The British Beer and Pub Association estimates that these types of tax and regulatory pressures have already contributed to a one-fifth reduction in the total number of pubs since 2010. Shockingly, the UK’s beer duty remains twelve times higher than comparable countries like Germany and Spain, adding to the financial strain on operators.

Retailers are equally vulnerable, facing an anticipated £2.66 billion annual business rates increase when the current reliefs end in spring 2025, according to sector experts. Independents especially are recalibrating their survival strategies amid what the British Independent Retailers Association deems a "toxic mix" of rising costs and stagnant consumer spending, with potential job losses projected in the tens of thousands.

Calls for government intervention are mounting. Greene King, one of the country’s largest pub operators, has advocated for a lower business rates multiplier specifically for pubs, estimating immediate annual savings of £13.7 million. Its chief executive, Nick Mackenzie, has also pushed for fundamental reform of the system to base tax payments on profits rather than property values, a shift that industry advocates say would better align tax liabilities with the precarious financial realities many pubs face.

Business groups emphasize that ongoing increases in National Insurance contributions and employment costs underpin existing redundancies and hiring freezes, with a third of firms surveyed by the British Chambers of Commerce having made or considering job cuts due to these factors. Such pressures risk hollowing out town centres and eroding the social fabric that local pubs and independent shops represent, often described as the "heartbeat" and "community lifelines" of high streets.

Opposition voices within Parliament have seized on these warnings to call for the abolition of business rates on high street shops and pubs, arguing that failing to act would result in irreversible damage to local economies. Reform UK figures are sceptical about the political longevity of the current Chancellor and Prime Minister, predicting that the coming Budget may be their last if they proceed with policies that fail to heed these concerns.

Labour, while acknowledging the difficult economic situation inherited from the previous government, has pledged to replace the business rates system with one that is “fairer” and more supportive of high street businesses. The party contends that reviving the high street involves addressing the cost of living and creating jobs, though business leaders remain cautious about the effectiveness of such promises without concrete fiscal measures.

The government, for its part, asserts that pubs are a priority and points to initiatives such as cutting licensing costs, lowering business rates through targeted reliefs, enabling more flexible dining options, and reducing alcohol duty on draught beer. Yet, businesses argue these measures are insufficient in the face of the broader tax and cost challenges.

As the Budget approaches, the hospitality and retail sectors stand at a critical crossroads. Unless decisive action is taken to ease the tax burden, particularly through business rates relief and National Insurance reforms, the closures and job losses forecast by industry leaders may soon become an unavoidable reality, fundamentally altering the face of Britain’s high streets.

📌 Reference Map:

^[1] (Express) - Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
^[2] (Evening Standard) - Paragraphs 2, 4
^[3] (The Guardian) - Paragraph 3
^[4] (CAMRA) - Paragraph 3
^[5] (Evening Standard) - Paragraph 4
^[6] (Greene King) - Paragraphs 6, 7
^[7] (The Guardian) - Paragraph 7

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2134405/starmer-reeves-clinging-dear-life - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/tax-government-pubs-b1233069.html - The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) has reported that recent tax increases and the rise in the minimum wage have cost each UK pub approximately £14,000 on average. These financial pressures, including hikes in national insurance contributions, the national minimum wage, business rates, and packaging taxes, have collectively eroded the equivalent of 12 days of a pub's turnover. The BBPA has called for immediate government action to support the sector and has urged for a reform of the current business rates system to help offset these rising costs.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/18/pub-closures-rise-sharply-amid-warning-over-planned-business-rate-change - Data from the commercial real estate analysts Altus Group indicates that 383 pubs, averaging more than two per day, closed in the first six months of 2023, nearly matching the total for the whole of 2022. The chief executive of Admiral Taverns, Chris Jowsey, warned that further closures could occur if the government proceeds with plans to eliminate a discount on business rates. Pubs currently benefit from a 75% discount on their business rate bills, capped at £110,000, but this relief is scheduled to end in March 2024, potentially leading to significant cost increases for many establishments.
https://camra.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/camra-warns-of-more-shuttered-pubs-as-double-whammy-of-tax-changes-come-into-force-93747 - The Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) has expressed concern over the impact of recent tax changes on the pub industry. In the first three months of 2025, 303 pub businesses across England, Scotland, and Wales closed, with an additional 46 pubs converted into other uses. CAMRA Chairman Ash Corbett-Collins highlighted that hundreds of pubs have already ceased trading this year, urging the government to reconsider the Employer National Insurance hike for pubs and to cut VAT and duty rates on beer and cider served in pubs to prevent further closures.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/warning-of-ps2-6bn-business-rates-cliff-edge-for-retail-and-hospitality-firms-b1187581.html - Experts have warned that retail and hospitality firms, including shops, pubs, and restaurants, could face a £2.66 billion annual increase in business rates starting in April 2025. Currently, these businesses receive a 75% relief on their business rates bill, but this is set to end on March 31, 2025. Without an extension of this relief in the upcoming Budget, the sectors face a significant financial burden, potentially leading to more closures and job losses.
https://www.greeneking.co.uk/newsroom/cost-of-doing-business - Greene King, a major pub operator, is advocating for a specific, lower business rates multiplier for all pubs in the upcoming Autumn Budget. This proposal aims to provide immediate relief for the sector, potentially saving Greene King £13.7 million annually. The company also calls for a fundamental reform of the business rates system, suggesting that rates should be calculated based on a pub's profits rather than its turnover, to better reflect the financial realities of the industry.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/14/tax-pubs-on-profit-not-property-value-urges-greene-king-boss - The chief executive of Greene King, Nick Mackenzie, has urged the government to reform the business rates system, advocating for taxes to be based on a pub's profit rather than its property value. The current system, which assesses rates based on 'fair maintainable turnover,' can result in disproportionately high tax bills for pubs operating on tight profit margins. Mackenzie emphasized the need for a system that allows pubs to flourish and contribute positively to the economy.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 6

Notes: The narrative presents recent concerns about pub closures and rising operational costs, with references to the upcoming Autumn Budget scheduled for November 26. Similar reports have emerged in the past year, notably in August 2025, highlighting the closure of over 200 pubs in the first half of the year due to tax hikes and rising costs. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/england-wales-treasury-pubs-government-b1243361.html?utm_source=openai)) Additionally, in July 2025, the British Beer and Pub Association estimated that 378 pubs would close across England, Wales, and Scotland, resulting in over 5,600 job losses. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/england-labour-government-wales-scotland-government-b1237348.html?utm_source=openai)) The narrative includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. The inclusion of the upcoming Autumn Budget adds a timely element, but the core issues have been reported previously. The narrative also references a press release from the British Beer and Pub Association, which typically warrants a high freshness score.

Quotes check

Score: 7

Notes: The narrative includes direct quotes from industry leaders, such as Kate Nicholls, chair of UK Hospitality, and Emma McClarkin, BBPA chief executive. Similar quotes have appeared in earlier reports, indicating potential reuse of content. For instance, in August 2025, Kate Nicholls described the situation as 'make or break,' noting that the sector has endured 13 consecutive months of falling employment. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/england-wales-treasury-pubs-government-b1243361.html?utm_source=openai)) The repetition of these quotes suggests that the content may be recycled.

Source reliability

Score: 5

Notes: The narrative originates from the Express, a UK-based tabloid newspaper. While it is a well-known publication, it is often considered less reliable due to sensationalist reporting. The Express has previously reported on similar issues, but its reputation for accuracy is mixed. The inclusion of a press release from the British Beer and Pub Association adds credibility, but the overall reliability is moderate.

Plausability check

Score: 8

Notes: The claims about pub closures and rising operational costs align with data from reputable sources. For example, in August 2025, it was reported that 209 pubs closed in the first half of the year due to tax hikes and rising costs. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/england-wales-treasury-pubs-government-b1243361.html?utm_source=openai)) The narrative also mentions the upcoming Autumn Budget, which is scheduled for November 26, adding a timely element. However, the reliance on a single source and the potential recycling of content slightly diminish the overall plausibility.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary: The narrative presents concerns about pub closures and rising operational costs, referencing recent data and the upcoming Autumn Budget. However, similar reports have emerged in the past year, indicating potential recycling of content. The inclusion of quotes from industry leaders and a press release from the British Beer and Pub Association adds credibility, but the overall reliability is moderate due to the source's reputation. The plausibility of the claims is supported by data from reputable sources, but the reliance on a single source and potential content recycling diminish the overall assessment.

High Streets
Pub Closures
Business Rates