Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being deployed across Pakistan in sectors like education, healthcare, banking, traffic management, and agriculture. Yet one of its most critical and urgent applications is in addressing the country’s persistent air pollution crisis, especially the thick winter smog that blankets major cities such as Lahore. Each year, this smog reaches hazardous levels on the Air Quality Index (AQI), prompting emergency measures including school closures and market restrictions, as recently seen in Punjab’s response with winter vacations across educational institutes.

Pakistan’s chronic air pollution stems from several entrenched sources: vehicular emissions, industrial activity, brick kilns, crop residue burning, construction dust, and open waste burning. To better manage this problem, the government, particularly in Punjab, is now harnessing AI-enabled air quality monitoring and forecasting systems. This represents a significant technological advancement aimed at predicting pollution levels and smog intensity, including the cross-border drift of polluted air from India, with forecasts available up to four months ahead.

The Punjab Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been integral in approving and deploying these AI-driven frameworks, which integrate data from ground-level sensors, satellite imagery, and machine-learning algorithms. These systems collect granular, real-time data on pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, NO₂, and CO from multiple neighbourhood-level hubs, feeding into centralised AI models that identify pollution hotspots, detect rising trends, and provide actionable insights to authorities. This initiative is the first nationwide attempt to combine sensor data with predictive AI for proactive air quality management.

Punjab’s Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb described the AI monitoring as a "comprehensive technological breakthrough" upon its launch. It feeds into a dedicated Smog War Room linked with the Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB) dashboard, integrating satellite feeds, drone surveillance, thermal sensors, and thousands of cameras. This extensive surveillance network geo-tags pollution sources, from factories and brick kilns to stubble-burning farms, and tracks compliance with environmental regulations, enabling swift actions such as fines, sealing, or demolition for non-compliant industries. Notably, AI-guided anti-smog guns deployed in Lahore’s Kahna area have shown a 70% air quality improvement in hours.

Citizens also play a role, reporting pollution sources via apps and helplines, with a reported 96% closure rate of complaints. Satellite data collaborations with NASA and the Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission allow near real-time detection of crop burning, correlating data with farm loan records to enforce targeted interventions. Consequently, these measures have reduced stubble burning by an estimated 65% within a year, highlighting AI’s impact when combined with enforcement.

Despite these innovations, experts caution that AI’s effectiveness is limited by Pakistan’s underdeveloped monitoring infrastructure and data quality. Currently, the country has roughly 300 pollution monitors, far fewer than the thousands needed for comprehensive coverage. Many monitoring stations suffer from poor maintenance, leading to incomplete or unreliable data streams. Data fragmentation across government departments also hinders the integration needed for robust AI modelling.

Furthermore, AI success depends heavily on sustained, long-term, high-quality data. Without extensive historical and real-time records, AI forecasts can lack the reliability required by policymakers. As the founder of the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative, Abid Omar, noted, "AI-driven insights can only be as good as the data and information given to AI." He also pointed out that although Punjab has been expanding its monitoring network from 30 to over 75 stations and aims for 100, the temporal data collected so far is insufficient for confident forecasting.

Moreover, structural and economic factors limit AI’s impact: identifying pollution through AI will not by itself resolve underlying causes like the affordability of clean farming machinery or industrial emissions control. Experts stress that technology must be coupled with political will, policy enforcement, public awareness, and systemic reforms. Otherwise, AI predictions risk remaining theoretical warnings rather than catalysts for concrete change.

To enhance pollution mitigation, Punjab has launched additional initiatives alongside AI monitoring. These include deploying a fleet of 15 AI-controlled dust suppression vehicles in Lahore to reduce airborne dust by spraying water autonomously based on real-time air quality detection. The government has also begun distributing modern harvesting machinery, scaling ‘super seeder’ units to 5,000, and implementing waste segregation schemes in schools. The Smog Steering Committee has approved strategies such as maintaining a smog-free zone around motorways and enforcing bans on vehicles repeatedly failing emissions tests.

Yet, despite the sophisticated technology and strategic planning, some gaps remain. Attempts to obtain detailed operational insights from EPA officials and the Environment Protection and Climate Change Department were unsuccessful, leaving public understanding incomplete on enforcement efficiency and real-time response effectiveness.

In summary, AI-powered monitoring and forecasting systems mark a significant step in Pakistan’s battle against hazardous smog, providing authorities with unprecedented predictive capabilities and actionable intelligence. However, limitations in data quality, infrastructure scale, and enforcement capacity currently hinder the realisation of AI’s full potential. Experts agree that without addressing these systemic challenges through comprehensive policy measures and public engagement, AI will be only one component in the complex fight to secure cleaner air for Pakistan’s cities.

📌 Reference Map:

  • [1] Geo.tv - Paragraphs 1-3, 5-8, 10-15, 17-21, 23-26
  • [2] Dawn.com - Paragraphs 4, 6, 12, 18
  • [3] Tribune.com.pk - Paragraphs 4, 12, 14-15, 19
  • [4] TheOpinion.com.pk - Paragraphs 4, 12, 14-15, 19
  • [5] PakistanToday.com.pk - Paragraphs 16, 20, 22
  • [6] GAT.report - Paragraph 21

Source: Noah Wire Services