The upcoming by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is poised to be a critical juncture for the Scottish National Party (SNP), signalling a potential decline that has been brewing over the past decade. Former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars has emphasised the importance of this vote, suggesting it could serve as compelling evidence of disillusionment among traditional working-class voters with the party. He argues that the SNP's myriad failures have created a political void that new parties, notably Nigel Farage's Reform UK, are now exploiting.
This perspective comes in tandem with the observation from leading pollster Mark Diffley, who believes that an increase in support for Reform may unexpectedly assist the SNP in not just the by-election but also in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections. Notably, Diffley pointed out that while the SNP’s support has notably dipped—from 48% in 2021 to around 36%—the fragmentation of the Unionist vote might allow them to retain a significant number of constituencies. As a result, traditional party dynamics may be shifting in Ukraine due to the emergence of new political entities like Reform UK, which has reported a notable increase in voter support across various local elections in Scotland.
Labour, buoyed by these developments, is keenly targeting pro-Union voters in hopes of converting disenfranchised SNP supporters. Recent poll results underscore Labour's strategy, reflecting a stark shift in public sentiment; in the recent Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, Labour’s Michael Shanks won with 58.6% of the vote to the SNP's Katy Loudon's 27.6%. This significant 24.1% swing in favour of Labour marks the party's first by-election victory in Scotland in twelve years, raising speculations about a momentum shift in Scottish politics.
Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie has been explicit in framing the situation as a choice between Labour and the SNP, asserting that their platform offers a viable alternative to the apparent disillusionment many voters feel towards the SNP's governance. She cited prominent concerns, including NHS waiting times and educational shortcomings, as indicative of SNP failures. The sentiment echoes wider criticisms regarding the party's recent performance and overall direction under the leadership of Humza Yousaf, particularly following some notable setbacks, such as MP Lisa Cameron's defection to the Conservative Party.
Despite these struggles, SNP officials remain resolute. Deputy First Minister John Swinney has positioned the upcoming vote as a direct contest against Farage's Reform, urging voters to reject what he described as “ugly, divisive politics.” Yet, the implications of recent events reveal deeper tensions within the party, forcing many to rethink its future amidst emerging competition.
As the political landscape evolves, the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election stands not just as a litmus test for the SNP, but potentially as a defining moment for Scottish Labour and Reform UK. With the stakes so high and voter sentiments shifting, the outcome could reshape the future of Scottish politics in unforeseen ways.
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Source: Noah Wire Services