The City of London property market has experienced a significant downturn, with average property prices falling markedly over recent years. Since 2018, prices in the City have dropped by around 36%, a substantial correction following years of growth. As of July 2024, average prices stood at approximately £766,878, marking a 24.2% decrease over the prior twelve months alone, according to property market data. Transaction volumes have also been low, with only 11 residential sales completed in the City during July 2024. This ongoing decline underscores the challenges faced by London's high-value property sector amid broader economic uncertainties and market shifts.

Against this backdrop, the UK government is considering reforming property taxation as part of the upcoming Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is said to be exploring a shift to council tax reforms targeting expensive properties, rather than introducing a direct stamp duty or sales tax on high-value homes. The current council tax bands, based on valuations from the 1990s, have long been criticised for their failure to reflect modern property values, leading to disparities where some multi-million-pound homes pay similar rates to much more modest properties in smaller towns. Changing this system could raise several billion pounds in additional revenue, with proposals discussed that include doubling the council tax on the highest property bands, potentially generating around £4.2 billion annually.

This approach is part of a wider strategy to address the Treasury’s estimated £20 billion budget shortfall without resorting to broad tax rate increases on income or VAT, which the government and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have warned could be economically damaging. The IFS has advocated for more targeted reforms focusing on wealth-related taxes and property taxation, emphasizing administrative simplicity and revenue potential. According to experts, a reformed council tax system would serve as a form of wealth tax on high-value property owners, while avoiding the market distortions feared from a transactional sales tax that might deter property transfers.

However, such reforms may have wider social and economic implications, particularly for London. The capital already faces challenges with housing affordability and a shifting demographic as young professionals and families move out due to high costs. Increased property taxes on expensive homes could further slow the market, with sellers potentially delaying sales or downsizing to avoid heavier tax burdens. Market analysts caution this could exacerbate London's risk of becoming less dynamic and ageing, as housing becomes less accessible and affordable for new entrants.

Historically, attempts to modernize council tax valuations have been politically contentious. Former Chancellor George Osborne had previously proposed reforms, but these were blocked during David Cameron’s premiership amid concerns over public and political opposition. Rachel Reeves’ current deliberations suggest a renewed willingness to tackle this long-standing issue, aligning with her broader message that higher taxes on the wealthy must "be part of the story" in the forthcoming budget.

Beyond London, the proposed tax reforms would have a more limited impact on other regions, where property values remain substantially lower. The concentration of high-value properties in London and the South East means these areas would bear the brunt of any increases in council tax or new property-related levies. This geographical concentration raises questions about regional equity and the balancing act between generating government revenue and supporting local economies.

As the government finalizes its budget proposals, stakeholders across the property sector and financial circles await clarity on the specifics and potential effects of these changes. While no decisions have been formally announced, the focus on leveraging existing taxation mechanisms like council tax, rather than introducing new transactional taxes, suggests a preference for solutions that avoid disrupting an already fragile housing market.

📌 Reference Map:

  • Paragraph 1 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [6] Local House Prices
  • Paragraph 2 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [2] The National News
  • Paragraph 3 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [5] Reuters
  • Paragraph 4 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [5] Reuters, [2] The National News
  • Paragraph 5 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [3] Evening Standard
  • Paragraph 6 – [1] Facilities Management Now, [4] Varbes
  • Paragraph 7 – [1] Facilities Management Now

Source: Noah Wire Services