On 21 April 2019, I found myself on Waterloo Bridge in London alongside my younger siblings amidst a vibrant gathering of Extinction Rebellion (XR) activists. As planters brimming with flowers replaced the usual cars, and chants filled the air, the atmosphere was electric. My siblings, then only 14 and inspired by Greta Thunberg's call to action, were eager to witness her speak at the protest—part of a larger movement that would shut down four major bridges in the capital for 11 days straight. The scale of participation was staggering; tens of thousands mobilised across the UK, affecting an estimated 500,000 people, while over 1,000 demonstrators were arrested during this ambitious operation.

The movement ultimately saw significant victories. Notably, its first demand, to "tell the truth" about climate change, was acknowledged when the UK became the first country globally to declare a climate emergency, mere days after the protests concluded. Public sentiment shifted markedly; subsequent polling showed that climate issues ranked among the top concerns for 24% of respondents—a clear jump from the preceding months where economic issues had predominated.

Fast forward to 2025, and the narrative has shifted markedly. While climate change remains an existential threat, the urgency evoked during XR's inception has seemingly dissipated. Current public surveys reveal a renewed focus on economic stability, immigration, and health, with climate breakdown concerns relegated to the background. The momentum that once saw mass gatherings and passionate protests has waned significantly. So, what has happened to the energy that fuelled this revolutionary movement?

Douglas Rogers, an organiser with XR from 2018 to 2021, identifies the pandemic as a crucial turning point. Although he noted a slowing down prior to COVID-19, the pandemic fundamentally deterred mass mobilisation efforts, as lockdowns substantially altered public life. Any plans the movement had to invest back into local groups for experimentation with new strategies were halted. Instead, the pandemic forced a complete demobilisation.

In the aftermath, splinter groups have emerged that embrace riskier tactics and direct actions. For instance, groups like Just Stop Oil have garnered international media attention by adopting more aggressive forms of protest, albeit at the cost of alienating less committed activists. Graeme Hayes, a political sociology expert, observed that many activists are now reluctant to face significant prison sentences, which has resulted in a shrinking pool of participants willing to engage in high-stakes protests. The introduction of new anti-protest legislation has further complicated the landscape. The UK government's increasingly repressive measures, which now classify certain protest tactics as criminal offences, indicate a significant shift in the approach towards climate activism.

While XR recognizes the changing dynamics and has toned down its more controversial tactics, the era of mass protests seems a relic of the past. The emergence of the Palestinian solidarity movement has attracted significant public energy, diverting attention away from climate activism. This fragmentation poses further challenges; groups that initially collaborated to accomplish massive protests now struggle to find common ground on strategies moving forward.

Yet, not all is lost within the climate movement. Various local initiatives continue to flourish under what Rogers describes as a "post-XR" ethos. In Scotland, for example, the Climate Camp is actively engaging communities through periodic protest camps at fossil fuel infrastructure sites. Moreover, XR co-founder Gail Bradbrook is advocating for strategies based on Deep Adaptation and collapsology, which focus on preparing communities to manage societal collapse with resilience rather than resorting to chaos.

Despite the visible ebb in mass mobilisation, the legacy of XR persists. Its initial successes have inspired new organisations and strategies, albeit in a fragmented and perhaps more radicalised form. Yet as climate consequences intensify and emerge as intertwined with economic challenges and geopolitical conflicts, experts like Hayes and Rogers suggest the end of the "protest cycle" may merely signify a preparatory phase for future climate activism. With the impact of climate change becoming increasingly evident and connected to broader societal issues, the potential for the next wave of activism—albeit through different forms and methods—remains crucial as we navigate an uncertain future.

Reference Map

  1. Article [1] informed the entire article.
  2. Article [2] contributed background on XR's evolution.
  3. Article [3] provided context regarding legal challenges faced by activists.
  4. Article [4] offered insights into initial protest actions and global reach.
  5. Article [5] and [6] supported details on policing costs associated with protests.
  6. Article [7] highlighted environmental impacts of XR activities.

Source: Noah Wire Services