Health

NHS warns of 'perfect storm' as flu, strikes and Covid threaten winter crisis

Friday, 7 November 2025 5:04AM UTC

NHS leaders warn of an unprecedented winter mix of severe flu, ongoing industrial actions, and Covid resurgence, urging urgent vaccination amid rising hospitalisations and mortality rates.

As the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) braces for a turbulent winter, senior NHS leadership has sounded the alarm over what could be a perfect storm of challenges, combining the impact of an intense flu season with ongoing industrial action by doctors. Sir Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, addressed NHS leaders at the King’s Fund conference, highlighting the considerable strain ahead. He acknowledged the “brilliant job” staff did managing doctor strikes in the summer but warned that the upcoming five-day strike by resident doctors in England, which starts next Friday, poses a “risk that we could all do without” amid an expected severe flu outbreak.

Sir Jim expressed concern that this winter’s flu wave, already anticipated to be prolonged and severe, will collide with the NHS attempting to recover from disruption caused by strikes, potentially stretching hospital capacity from December through to March. Stressing the inevitability of flu and a new Covid round, he expressed strong hope that further industrial action could be avoided. This confluence of challenges is occurring in the context of the worst flu season recorded in Australia, a country seen as a reliable predictor for the UK. Last winter, England saw a marked increase in flu-related deaths, with numbers more than doubling from 3,555 to 7,757, alongside a rise in child deaths due to flu from 34 to 53. NHS leaders have issued urgent calls for vaccination as a key defence against this public health threat.

Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) underlines the seriousness of the situation. Excess deaths associated with flu infection in England last winter reached 14,500, higher than the five-year pre-pandemic average of 13,500, although still below the peak of the 2017-18 season when 22,500 excess deaths were recorded. Reports also indicate a significant early rise in hospitalisations across all age groups, although some of this increase may be attributed to more comprehensive NHS testing than in previous years. Over the past two winters, flu has been linked to around 18,000 deaths, despite last winter being relatively mild compared to 2022-23, when flu-related deaths numbered nearly 16,000. This ongoing threat is attributed to lower vaccine uptake last season among eligible groups in England, which contributed to spikes in hospitalisations during the festive period and January.

The NHS is acutely aware of the urgent need to increase flu vaccine coverage amid these alarming trends. NHS England has announced it will make 2.4 million vaccination appointment slots available next week – a volume sufficient to cover the entire population of Greater Manchester or even the country of Botswana. This move accompanies a public appeal from Duncan Burton, chief nursing officer for England, and other NHS leaders urging all eligible individuals to promptly seek vaccination. The encouragement targets people aged 65 and over, under-65s with clinical risk factors, pregnant women, care home residents and carers, frontline social care and healthcare workers, as well as children. NHS figures show that less than a third of people with long-term health conditions have had a flu jab this year, leaving millions potentially unprotected at a time when flu is circulating much earlier and more aggressively than in past years.

Prominent healthcare professionals have voiced their concerns. Dr Suzanna McDonald, UKHSA’s national lead for influenza, emphasised the severity of flu, noting that many people mistake it for a common cold. She stressed the importance of vaccination to protect the most vulnerable. Elaine Clancy, chief nursing officer for St George’s, Epsom and St Helier hospitals, warned of a potential spike in flu cases overwhelming hospital wards and called on the public to book vaccination appointments promptly, noting flu vaccines take up to two weeks to become effective.

Public health officials and politicians have also joined the chorus of calls for vaccination. Public health minister Ashley Dalton cited the tripling of flu cases compared with the same time last year as a reason for urgency. The National Pharmacy Association highlighted the convenience and accessibility of pharmacies as vaccination centres to ease pressure on GPs and hospitals.

The NHS’s proactive steps come amid sobering data about the burdens of flu on hospital services and mortality. UKHSA estimates suggest that last winter’s flu vaccination programme prevented between 96,000 and 120,200 hospital admissions in England, representing a significant public health achievement. However, experts warn that broader vaccination uptake would save more lives and reduce hospital pressures during peak flu season.

In sum, with the NHS facing an “unprecedented collision” of flu surge and industrial action, alongside ongoing Covid concerns, health leaders are urging the public to act quickly. Vaccination remains the foremost tool to mitigate severe illness, protect vulnerable populations, and help maintain NHS service delivery in what is shaping up to be one of the most challenging winters in recent memory.

📌 Reference Map:

^[1] (Express) - Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
^[2] (Gov.uk) - Paragraph 4
^[3] (Gov.uk) - Paragraph 5
^[4] (ITV News) - Paragraph 4
^[5] (Gov.uk) - Paragraph 7
^[6] (NHS England) - Paragraph 6
^[7] (Gov.uk) - Paragraph 5, 6

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/2130804/nhs-flu-season-worst-ever - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/excess-deaths-associated-with-flu-highest-in-5-years - The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reported that excess deaths in England associated with flu infection were higher (14,500) than the average figure (13,500) for the five years before the pandemic. This is the highest figure since the 2017 to 2018 season, when there were 22,500 excess deaths associated with flu. The report also shows that the season started relatively early in the winter but peaked quickly. Hospitalisations across all ages were higher than average, although some of this may be attributed to increased testing by the NHS compared to previous winters.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/18000-flu-related-deaths-in-past-2-winters-as-jab-uptake-falls - UKHSA data indicates that over the past two winters (October to May, 2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024), at least 18,000 deaths were associated with flu, despite last winter being a relatively mild flu season. This highlights the ongoing threat of flu, particularly for older people and other groups at greatest risk. Of concern is the drop in flu vaccine uptake rates last winter across all eligibility groups in England compared with the previous year, leading to increased hospitalisations due to a flu peak in the week leading up to Christmas and again at the end of January.
https://www.itv.com/news/2025-11-06/nhs-issues-jab-sos-as-experts-warn-thousands-could-die-from-flu-this-winter - Experts have warned that thousands of people could die from flu this winter, as the UK braces for a high level of infection. NHS leaders issued a 'flu jab SOS' on Thursday, urging members of the public to get protected. Figures show the number of deaths from flu more than doubled last winter, but this year could be even worse. Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) showed deaths from flu in the winter of 2024 to 2025 stood at 7,757 compared to 3,555 deaths the year before. According to the UKHSA's annual epidemiological report, this number is still lower than the 2022 to 2023 season, which stood at 15,867 deaths. Australia, a country that is often seen as an accurate predictor of what the UK can expect, has just recorded its biggest flu season in history.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flu-vaccine-prevented-around-100000-hospital-admissions - UKHSA data shows the flu vaccine is estimated to have prevented around 96,000 to 120,200 people from being hospitalised in England last winter. The figures are encouraging, but immunisation experts say that many more could have been protected if more eligible people took up the free flu vaccine. UKHSA's annual figures published today show contrasting influenza vaccine uptake rates for 2024/25 across eligible groups during a season of high flu levels. While today’s annual influenza reports show there were some successes on the delivery of the NHS routine flu programme among the eligible groups, of concern were the decline in uptake among: for excess mortality, there were 7,757 deaths this winter – this is higher than the 3,555 deaths recorded last year but lower than the 2022 to 2023 season (15,867 deaths).
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/11/nhs-issues-flu-jab-sos-with-worst-of-winter-only-weeks-away/ - The NHS has issued a ‘flu jab SOS’, with England’s top nurse warning people to get protected now, with only weeks to go before the worst of the flu season typically bites. Eligible adults are being urged to come forward now, so they are fully protected ahead of the usual flu season peak in the winter months. In response, the health service is making 2.4 million vaccination slots available next week – enough to vaccinate the whole of Greater Manchester or Botswana. The NHS is calling on eligible adults to get their jab as soon as possible to stamp out the early wave of flu hitting the NHS more than a month earlier this year, with cases triple the same time last year. It follows the biggest flu season in Australia’s history – often an accurate predictor of what is around the corner for people in England.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-5-million-under-65s-with-a-long-term-health-condition-could-miss-out-flu-vaccine - The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is concerned that many people at risk may not know they are eligible for a flu vaccine. Latest figures show less than a third (28.9%) of people with one or more long-term health conditions (LTHCs) have had a flu vaccine. Nine million aged under 65’s in clinical risk groups are eligible but just 40% vaccinated last year (2024 to 25) – leaving over 5 million missing out and unprotected. Uptake of the flu vaccine in older adults, aged 65 and over, is higher – 61.5% this year to date; and 74.9% overall for last year – but many over 65s with LTHCs will be missing out. For some clinical groups the risk of influenza-related mortality compared with the general population is much higher. If you have a long-term health condition speak with your doctor’s surgery to find out more. With flu hitting earlier this year I can’t stress enough how important it is to get yourself protected as soon as possible. And for all other groups at increased risk of severe illness and who are also eligible – people aged 65 and over, pregnant women and 2-and-3 year olds – if you’ve not had the flu vaccine, please do not put if off and regret it later.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 8

Notes: The narrative presents recent developments regarding the NHS's preparedness for the flu season, with a publication date of 6 November 2025. The earliest known publication date of similar content is 30 October 2025, when NHS England issued a warning about an early flu wave. ([england.nhs.uk](https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/10/early-flu-wave-could-lead-to-long-and-drawn-out-winter-for-nhs/?utm_source=openai)) The report is based on a press release from NHS England, which typically warrants a high freshness score. However, the Express article includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. Additionally, the narrative includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged.

Quotes check

Score: 7

Notes: The narrative includes direct quotes from Sir Jim Mackey, Chief Executive of NHS England, and Duncan Burton, Chief Nursing Officer for England. A search reveals that similar quotes from Sir Jim Mackey were used in an ITV News article published on 6 November 2025. ([itv.com](https://www.itv.com/news/2025-11-06/nhs-issues-jab-sos-as-experts-warn-thousands-could-die-from-flu-this-winter?utm_source=openai)) This suggests that the quotes may have been reused from previous reports, indicating potential recycled content. The wording of the quotes varies slightly between sources, which may indicate paraphrasing or selective quoting.

Source reliability

Score: 6

Notes: The narrative originates from the Express, a UK tabloid newspaper. While it is a well-known publication, it is often considered less reliable due to sensationalist reporting. The report is based on a press release from NHS England, which typically warrants a high reliability score. However, the Express's reputation for sensationalism may affect the overall reliability of the narrative.

Plausability check

Score: 8

Notes: The claims regarding the NHS's preparedness for the flu season align with recent reports from reputable sources. For instance, NHS England issued a warning about an early flu wave on 30 October 2025. ([england.nhs.uk](https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/10/early-flu-wave-could-lead-to-long-and-drawn-out-winter-for-nhs/?utm_source=openai)) Additionally, ITV News reported on 6 November 2025 about the NHS issuing a 'flu jab SOS' due to rising flu cases. ([itv.com](https://www.itv.com/news/2025-11-06/nhs-issues-jab-sos-as-experts-warn-thousands-could-die-from-flu-this-winter?utm_source=openai)) The narrative includes specific figures and quotes that are consistent with these reports, enhancing its plausibility.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary: The narrative presents recent developments regarding the NHS's preparedness for the flu season, with a publication date of 6 November 2025. While the content is based on a press release from NHS England, which typically warrants a high freshness score, the Express's reputation for sensationalism may affect the overall reliability of the narrative. The quotes included in the narrative appear to have been reused from previous reports, indicating potential recycled content. The claims regarding the NHS's preparedness for the flu season align with recent reports from reputable sources, enhancing the narrative's plausibility.

NHS
flu season
public health