Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is expected to become the next UK Prime Minister following the general elections on July 4, 2024. European leaders are anticipating a significant shift in UK-EU relations as Starmer hosts the European Political Community (EPC) gathering at Blenheim Palace on July 18. The EPC, created by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2022, aims to address major strategic challenges.
Starmer faces the challenge of mending relationships shattered by Brexit and will seek to strengthen the UK's economic and security ties with the EU without rejoining the single market or customs union. Key areas of focus include defense cooperation, trade in degradable goods, and agreements on youth mobility and artists' visas.
Diplomatic relations may see improvement under Starmer, but EU leaders are expected to maintain a firm stance on negotiations, emphasizing trade-offs and clarity on the UK’s goals. Any progress on renegotiating aspects of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, such as reducing border checks on food and animal products, will likely require reciprocal concessions.
The European Union itself faces internal political shifts following recent parliamentary elections, with growing support for hard-right parties in France and Germany. This backdrop underscores the complex environment in which UK-EU relations will evolve, should Starmer secure a substantial victory and navigate these diplomatic waters successfully.