Since October 8, 2023, increased drone shootdowns by Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon and Yemen have highlighted their advanced air-defense capabilities. This development, involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi militias in Yemen, may prompt Israel and the United States to reassess their air operations strategies in the region.
Hezbollah has downed five Israeli drones near the northern border with Israel, while Houthi forces have taken out three US MQ-9 Reaper drones over Yemen, marking a significant uptick in drone losses. These figures align more closely with peer-to-peer combat scenarios and suggest possible improvements in these militias' air-defense systems or just an increase in operational activity by US and Israeli forces.
Experts, such as Farzin Nadimi from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believe that this evolving threat could undermine the air dominance of Israel and the US. Shaan Shaikh from CSIS and Bruce Bennett from RAND Corporation asserted that these advancements could deter drone operations or necessitate enhanced countermeasures and operational adjustments.
The cause behind these successful shootdowns remains debated. Some attribute it to new air-defense technologies from Iran, like the Misagh-2, Khordad-15, and Sayyad-2 systems, while others cite increased drone deployments and heightened alertness among Houthi and Hezbollah forces.
Despite these challenges, experts agree that while drone losses have occurred, US and Israeli manned aircraft have not faced similar threats, and both nations continue to successfully target positions in Yemen and Lebanon.
Additionally, Hezbollah and the Houthis have ramped up military actions in solidarity with Hamas, which is currently under Israeli attack in Gaza. Hezbollah has initiated operations in southern Lebanon against Israel, and the Houthis have targeted commercial ships in the Red Sea.
These developments highlight the evolving dynamics in the Middle East, necessitating possible adjustments in US and Israeli aerial operations and countermeasures to maintain air superiority.