When Cheyne Capital and Stanhope acquired the site formerly known as Red Lion Court from Landsec last month, it marked the first transaction for a ground-up office development site in central London in two years—an extraordinary pause in a historically active market. The purchase underscores a compelling paradox within London’s office development sector: while the challenges of establishing new office space are formidable, successful projects situated in prime locations have the potential to yield significant returns.
Stanhope’s CEO David Camp described London’s office occupational market as being "as strong as at any time in the past 40 years," particularly for prime assets in top-tier locations. The site, now renamed Row One, is an 11-storey, 235,000-square-foot development on a 1.2-acre South Bank plot adjacent to Southwark Bridge, projected to reach an end value of £450 million. The deal was attractive partly because Landsec sought to divest from London offices to focus on build-to-rent projects, leading to a realistic price point for Cheyne and Stanhope.
Cheyne is both an equity investor and a lender on projects with Stanhope, including the nearby 76 Southbank development, where prime rents are approaching £90 per square foot, reinforcing confidence in achieving the higher average rents—around £100 per square foot—required to make Row One economically viable. Despite recent easing of labour and construction cost inflation, overheads and capital costs remain elevated, underscoring the complexities of funding ground-up office developments in the current cycle. Private equity, known for high-risk, high-return appetite, dominates this space, though this approach is not universally suitable for all developers.
While London’s office market has rebounded rapidly from earlier downturns, institutional investors remain cautious about financing new construction, leading to a scarcity of development sites changing hands. More commonly, private equity firms have preferred acquiring existing buildings or financing refurbishments that allow quicker turnaround times. New builds underway tend to be backed by insurers such as AXA or Aviva, often on sites held for several years rather than fresh acquisitions. Row One’s readiness to commence onsite following Landsec’s preparatory works, with construction anticipated to start in early 2026 and take two years, represents a rare opportunity perfectly suited to private equity timelines.
The constrained supply of new, high-calibre office space in central London has triggered a notable tightness in the market. Data shows a mere 1% vacancy rate for Grade A offices in super-prime locations such as the City core and the West End, contrasting with an overall London office vacancy rate closer to 10%. This vacancy disparity has precipitated rent surges—31% over five years on the South Bank, 39% in the City core, and a striking 73% in Mayfair, according to Devono Analytics. Prime rents are now commanding offers well into the region of £100 per square foot and beyond, bolstered by recent lettings at high-profile developments like the Goldman Sachs building near London Bridge, where top floors have been leased at around £130 per square foot.
These rental dynamics align with broader market indicators. Recent quarter reports indicate that West End Core Grade A fitted offices—encompassing Mayfair and St James’s—are commanding rents in the range of £110 to £250 per square foot. In the City Core, vacancy rates have dipped to around 8.5%, with prime rents rising from £95 to £100 per square foot in early 2025. Supply growth remains modest and mostly pre-let, reaffirming the constrained availability of new quality space in central London’s most sought-after districts.
Underlying this demand is a composition of thriving companies, particularly US-based firms in sectors such as professional services, law, and financial trading, which continue to expand their London footprints even amidst wider economic uncertainty. Stanhope’s Joe Binns notes that firms making profits and expanding in the capital create sustainable demand for best-in-class office space, with some niche financial sectors thriving on geopolitical volatility that drives trading activity. High-profile corporate expansions announced by firms like Jane Street and Citadel reflect this trend, alongside growth by American law firms catering to transatlantic clients.
However, a crucial piece to unlock widespread development activity remains the re-entry of core institutional investors offering low-cost capital for large-scale office projects. The market is yet to see significant recent transactions for major fully let buildings at yields of 5% or less—considered essential for financing new developments at scale. While deals such as Modon’s acquisition at 2 Finsbury Avenue suggest early signs of renewed confidence, overall, institutional appetite for newly built offices remains cautious amid the current market cycle.
What lies ahead, according to Camp, is a potential swift increase in supply once core investor involvement returns. Schemes scheduled for delivery between 2032 and 2035 could face a more competitive market environment, echoing the City’s historic volatility between periods of undersupply and oversupply. Until then, market fundamentals for prime office space remain robust, driven by a severe shortage of supply paired with sustained demand.
In summary, London’s office development landscape is navigating a complex environment of high costs, risk-averse capital markets, and limited site availability. Yet, for those who can successfully develop prime new office projects, the sector offers an unparalleled opportunity. The current imbalance of supply and demand for top-tier spaces, along with the financial backing of opportunistic private equity and the growing presence of high-rent-paying tenants, signals a uniquely advantageous moment in London office real estate that has not been seen in four decades.
📌 Reference Map:
- Paragraph 1 – [1] Bisnow
- Paragraph 2 – [1] Bisnow
- Paragraph 3 – [1] Bisnow
- Paragraph 4 – [1] Bisnow
- Paragraph 5 – [1] Bisnow, [6] Business Money
- Paragraph 6 – [1] Bisnow, [3] SHB, [4] Knight Frank
- Paragraph 7 – [1] Bisnow, [2] Finance Monthly, [3] SHB
- Paragraph 8 – [1] Bisnow, [2] Finance Monthly, [3] SHB
- Paragraph 9 – [1] Bisnow
- Paragraph 10 – [1] Bisnow
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- Paragraph 12 – [1] Bisnow
Source: Noah Wire Services