As of May 2024, Democratic Senator Bob Casey holds a narrow lead over his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, according to a poll conducted by the Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena College. The poll, which surveyed registered voters from April 28 to May 7, shows Casey leading with 46%, McCormick at 41%, and 13% undecided. Despite the close Senate race, Casey appears to be performing better than President Joe Biden amongst Pennsylvania voters, particularly in comparison to Biden’s ratings against former President Donald Trump.
In related findings, former President Donald Trump is perceived more favorably than President Biden on handling crime in Pennsylvania. This sentiment persists despite Trump currently standing trial. According to a poll conducted during the same period, Trump was favored over Biden by 51% to 42% on crime issues, even in predominantly Democratic areas such as the Philadelphia suburbs.
The polling also touches on the impact of third-party candidates in the upcoming presidential election. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an independent, is drawing support from voters who previously supported Biden in 2020 but are now leaning towards Trump or other candidates. Kennedy’s presence in the race could potentially influence the dynamics, drawing more support from disenchanted Democratic voters than Republican ones.
These polls highlight key dynamics and voter sentiments in Pennsylvania as it approaches critical Senate and presidential elections, with crime emerging as a significant issue among the electorate.