Labour is poised for a significant victory in the upcoming general elections, potentially securing the largest win in the party's history, according to a YouGov poll released on Monday. The research, conducted with Sky News using the Multi-Level Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) method, projects Labour winning 422 seats, with the Conservatives reduced to 140. This would result in a majority of 194 for Labour, surpassing the party's 1997 landslide under Tony Blair.
Prominent Conservative figures, including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, are likely to lose their seats. The Liberal Democrats are forecasted to secure 48 seats, the SNP 17, and the Green Party one additional seat.
The data, derived from over 58,000 respondents, indicates Labour’s substantial lead over the Conservatives, which has widened despite recent policy initiatives from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government. Another MRP analysis from More in Common and The News Agents podcast supports these findings, suggesting Labour could gain up to 382 seats, achieving its largest majority in 23 years.
Additionally, the new YouGov poll forecasts a drastic reduction in Conservative representation in London, dropping from 21 to just four seats, with Labour gaining a total of 65 seats in the capital.
The general election is scheduled for July 4, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer projected to become the next Prime Minister.