Politics

Labour faces growing threat from emerging party leading on immigration and economic reform

Wednesday, 14 May 2025 12:12AM UTC

A new YouGov survey shows an emerging political force has taken a five-point lead over Labour, intensifying internal divisions over immigration and economic strategy as the party grapples with recent election losses and declining voter support.

Recent polling data reveals a troubling trend for the Labour Party, as it grapples with the surging popularity of an emerging political force, now holding a five-point lead over Labour in voter support. A YouGov survey indicates this group commands 28 per cent of the electorate, while Labour lags behind at just 23 per cent. This slight dip from the previous week showcases the resilience and magnetic appeal of an alternative platform, especially as Labour struggles to regain lost ground. Meanwhile, the Conservatives trail significantly at a mere 18 per cent, exemplifying their ongoing disarray in the post-election climate.

Anxiety within Labour’s leadership is palpable, especially after the recent local elections, where this challenger secured ten councils and two mayoralties, along with a critical Commons seat in Runcorn. The escalating fears among Labour ranks were underlined by Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden, who described the situation as the "fight of our lives" in a candid discussion with fellow MPs. The party now stands at a crucial juncture, grappling with internal discord on how to effectively counter this emerging threat.

One faction within Labour, the Labour Growth Group, has issued stark warnings about the party's faltering trajectory. Their chairman, Chris Curtis, raised alarm bells over the UK’s economic prospects, cautioning that unless the country breaks free from a "complete economic doom loop," the appeal of this emerging leader could continue to rise. He stressed the critical need to address the economic stagnation that leaves many Britons disenchanted, stating, "Until we get out of that economic doom loop, we could very well see a shift in leadership."

The issue of immigration remains central to this political landscape, with a significant share of Labour voters expressing dissatisfaction with the party’s current stance. Surveys indicate that over a quarter of Labour supporters might consider backing this alternative option, driven largely by calls for stricter immigration controls. Data reveals that 57 per cent of Labour voters believe immigration levels should be reduced, suggesting a disconnect between Labour’s policies and the desires of a substantial portion of its base. This has led to mounting calls within the party for a more assertive approach to immigration, including discussions around a wealth tax aimed at addressing public service cuts, alongside pressures for stringent immigration reforms.

As Labour seeks a coherent strategy amidst these shifting sentiments, the internal tensions between traditional economic policies and the pressing demands for immigration reform highlight the broader ideological divide within the party. The Red Wall MPs have pushed for a break from what they term "Treasury orthodoxy," advocating for transformative solutions that resonate with disillusioned voters. In contrast, left-wing factions remain adamant that social safety nets should be prioritized, without resorting to austerity as a solution.

As this emerging platform continues to leverage hardline immigration stances, the political landscape may hinge on Labour's capacity to adapt to the changing electorate. With the next election looming, Labour’s response to these challenges will be critical in determining its future relevance in UK politics.

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14707409/Reform-poll-lead-local-elections-Keir-Starmers-voters-immigration-Labour.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490 - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/08/reform-uk-bearing-down-on-labour-as-voters-back-harder-line-on-migration - An article from The Guardian discusses how Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is gaining support due to its hardline stance on immigration. A recent Opinium poll shows Reform UK at 26% and Labour at 27%, with 37% of Reform supporters citing immigration policies as their main reason for backing the party. The rise of Reform UK is causing concern among Labour MPs, especially in seats where Reform came close second in the previous general election.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/reform-lead-labour-poll-starmer-farage-b1208896.html - The Evening Standard reports on a YouGov poll indicating that Reform UK has overtaken Labour in national support for the first time, with Reform UK at 25% and Labour at 24%. The Conservatives are at 21%. The poll also reveals that only 60% of people who voted for Labour in the last general election would do so now, compared to 86% of Reform voters continuing their support.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1939951/keir-starmer-immigration-fury-labour-voters-reform - An article from the Daily Express highlights a poll showing that over a quarter of Labour voters would consider voting for Reform UK in the next election. The poll indicates that 57% of Labour voters believe migration to the UK should be reduced, and 26% would seriously consider voting for Reform UK, with only 2% saying they would vote Reform if there was an election tomorrow.
https://www.euronews.com/2025/01/14/new-era-for-uk-politics-as-reform-narrow-labours-lead-poll-shows - Euronews reports on a YouGov poll showing Reform UK at 25% and Labour at 26%, with the Conservatives at 22%. The poll suggests that Reform UK's rise is due to its hard-right policies on immigration, including demanding a freeze on 'non-essential immigration'. The Conservatives have lost 15% of their 2024 voters to Reform UK, and only 54% of those who voted for Labour in 2024 would back the party in another election.
https://timesofmalta.com/article/farages-reform-uk-nears-top-spot-yougov-voters-poll.1103679 - An article from Times of Malta discusses a YouGov poll showing Reform UK at 25% and Labour at 26%, with the Conservatives at 22%. The poll indicates that Reform UK's rise is due to its hard-right policies on immigration, including demanding a freeze on 'non-essential immigration'. The Conservatives have lost 15% of their 2024 voters to Reform UK, and only 54% of those who voted for Labour in 2024 would back the party in another election.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/10/13/farages-reform-party-hits-record-high-in-national-poll-as-labour-support-collapses/ - Breitbart reports that Reform UK has surged to a record high in a national poll, with support at 21%, while Labour's support has collapsed to 27%. The poll indicates that Reform UK is gaining support due to its hard-right policies on immigration, including demanding a freeze on 'non-essential immigration'. The Conservatives have lost 15% of their 2024 voters to Reform UK, and only 54% of those who voted for Labour in 2024 would back the party in another election.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 7

Notes: The narrative references recent local elections and mentions current political figures like Keir Starmer and Pat McFadden, indicating contemporary relevance. However, no exact date of the poll or elections is mentioned, making precise freshness assessment difficult. There is no indication that the content is recycled or a press release, though the framing resembles political analysis common in ongoing coverage.

Quotes check

Score: 6

Notes: Direct quotes attributed to Pat McFadden and Chris Curtis are included. The quote from Pat McFadden about the 'fight of our lives' and Curtis’s 'economic doom loop' statement appear distinctive but no original, earliest source or exact date was found in available data, suggesting these may be first-published here or paraphrased from recent private discussions or briefings.

Source reliability

Score: 5

Notes: The narrative originates from a well-known UK tabloid noted for widespread readership but often critiqued for sensationalism and limited editorial rigor compared to major reputable outlets such as BBC or Reuters. This reduces confidence somewhat in strict factual accuracy though basic political polling and quotes are plausible.

Plausability check

Score: 8

Notes: Claims about shifting voter support, Labour’s internal tensions, and public opinion on immigration align with known political trends in recent UK contexts. No extraordinary or unverified claims were made. The lack of precise poll dates or corroborating sources limits full verification but overall content is plausible given UK political dynamics around 2024-2025.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary: The narrative reflects plausible and timely political developments with relevant quotes, but lacks clear sourcing or confirmation of originality for statements. The originating publication’s track record tempers reliability. Absence of explicit dates and independent verification leaves the piece credible yet needing corroboration for full confidence.

Labour Party
YouGov poll
immigration
economic policy
UK politics