Following the Chancellor's Autumn Budget, over 90,000 hospitality jobs have vanished due to rising taxes and policy decisions, prompting industry leaders to warn of widespread closures and economic decline in Britain’s social heartland.
Since the Chancellor's Autumn Budget, the UK hospitality sector has become yet another casualty of a government more interested in raising money than supporting the backbone of our society. Over 90,000 jobs have vanished—more than half of the total 165,000 jobs lost across all industries—highlighting the reckless impact of tax policies that punish businesses rather than support them. The drastic rise in National Insurance Contributions (NICs), from 13.8% to 15%, paired with the lowering of the earnings threshold from £9,100 to £5,000, has created a perfect storm for hospitality employers. These policies explicitly target part-time and flexible roles, which many rely on, pushing businesses into impossible choices and increasing the likelihood of closures.
Industry leaders recognize how uniquely damaging these measures are. Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, has rightly described these employment figures as "staggering," warning that the government’s regressive tax hikes are bleeding the sector dry. Instead of fostering growth, this government is forcing pubs, bars, and restaurants to pass their increased costs onto customers—introducing a 4% automatic service charge at venues like The Well & Boot pub in London to cover the extra tax. Such tactics reflect the desperation of many operators, who are being forced to squeeze customers and compromise their offerings—further undermining the social fabric that these venues have traditionally supported.
The financial toll is staggering. London’s hospitality sector alone could be facing losses nearing £300 million due to these NIC changes, yet the government remains deaf to the cries of those struggling to keep doors open. Restaurateurs are faced with difficult decisions—cutting staff, slashing menus, and reducing hours—all while consumer spending wanes amid economic uncertainty deliberately fueled by government policies that disproportionately harm the sector’s most vulnerable workers.
Warnings from industry leaders are dire. Over 200 have signed letters to the Chancellor, calling for an urgent reversal or revision of these damaging policies—warning of widespread closures and soaring unemployment if the government refuses to listen. Despite claims of additional revenues, these policies are a sledgehammer to a fragile sector, with estimates indicating up to 69,000 jobs lost since NIC hikes took effect. Such figures reflect a government preoccupied with short-term gains at the expense of the economic and social well-being of communities across the country.
The government’s so-called support measures fall flat. Promises of reductions in licensing costs, business rate relief, and cuts to alcohol duty are little more than sticking plasters on a gaping wound. They do not come close to offsetting the immediate and savage increases in payroll taxes that threaten the survival of countless venues. Instead of creating an environment conducive to growth and employment, this government’s policies are pushing the sector towards collapse.
It is clear that a government choosing to ignore the real-world consequences of its policies is risking a catastrophic decline in an industry that sustains local communities and national culture alike. If immediate action is not taken, we face a future of closures, mass job losses, and an erosion of Britain’s hospitality traditions—fuelled not by market forces but by misguided taxes that punish success and discourage enterprise. The time for talk is over; what’s needed now are policies that support, not strangle, the vital industries that underpin our everyday lives.
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative aligns with recent reports on the impact of National Insurance increases on the hospitality sector. For instance, a report from PwC indicates that the rate of shop closures on Britain's high streets is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to increased business costs imposed by the government's latest budget. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/rate-uk-shop-closures-accelerate-after-budget-tax-changes-says-report-2025-03-20/?utm_source=openai)) Additionally, street food vendors at the 2025 Notting Hill Carnival are scaling back operations and altering menus due to rising costs, particularly in poultry and employer National Insurance Contributions. ([ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/189f022f-6b25-4349-9d21-0419b458f86d?utm_source=openai)) However, the specific figures and quotes in the provided narrative do not appear in these sources, suggesting that the content may be original or exclusive. The report does not appear to be recycled from low-quality sites or clickbait networks. The narrative is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were identified. The content does not include updated data but recycles older material. The earliest known publication date of substantially similar content is not available.
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
The direct quotes from Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, and other industry leaders do not appear in the provided search results, suggesting that they may be original or exclusive to the report. No identical quotes were found in earlier material, indicating that the content is likely original. No variations in quote wording were identified.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The narrative originates from the Express, a UK-based news outlet. While the Express is a well-known publication, it has faced criticism for sensationalism and accuracy issues in the past. The report includes direct quotes from Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, and other industry leaders, which adds credibility. However, the Express's reputation for sensationalism and accuracy issues in the past raises some concerns about the reliability of the source.
Plausability check
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative's claims about job losses in the hospitality sector due to National Insurance hikes are plausible and align with recent reports. For example, a report from PwC indicates that the rate of shop closures on Britain's high streets is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to increased business costs imposed by the government's latest budget. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/rate-uk-shop-closures-accelerate-after-budget-tax-changes-says-report-2025-03-20/?utm_source=openai)) Additionally, street food vendors at the 2025 Notting Hill Carnival are scaling back operations and altering menus due to rising costs, particularly in poultry and employer National Insurance Contributions. ([ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/189f022f-6b25-4349-9d21-0419b458f86d?utm_source=openai)) The narrative lacks supporting detail from other reputable outlets, which is a concern. The report includes specific factual anchors, such as names, institutions, and dates, which supports its plausibility. The language and tone are consistent with the region and topic. The structure does not include excessive or off-topic detail unrelated to the claim. The tone is dramatic, which is typical for the Express.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative presents plausible claims about job losses in the hospitality sector due to National Insurance hikes, supported by recent reports. However, the Express's reputation for sensationalism and accuracy issues in the past raises concerns about the reliability of the source. The lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets further diminishes confidence in the report's accuracy. Therefore, the overall assessment is 'OPEN' with a 'MEDIUM' confidence rating.