House prices have regained momentum after a spring wobble, with the pace of growth in June the fastest in more than a year as a stamp-duty upheaval faded into the background of buyers re-entering the market. The Independent’s synthesis of official data shows the average UK property value rising 3.7% in the year to June, taking the national average to about £269,000. That marks a notable acceleration from May’s 2.7%, and comes after a government change in stamp-duty rules earlier in the year that briefly cooled activity before buyers returned. The report also notes that the rate of price growth may still be volatile month to month, but underlying demand appears resilient as rates eased modestly. As Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Elliott Jordan-Doak put it, house prices are recovering quickly from the disruption caused by the hike to stamp duty in April, though “month-to-month inflation can be volatile at the best of times.” Speaking to The Independent, he added that while gains could wobble in the near term, fundamentals look supportive for a rise in prices through the second half of the year. (ons.gov.uk, bankofengland.co.uk, gov.uk)

The latest official figures also paint a picture of how this momentum plays out across the country, with regional disparities continuing to shape affordability and buyer behaviour. Regional data from the same period show England’s average house price around £291,000, Wales roughly £210,000 and Scotland about £192,000, underscoring the north–south and urban–rural divide that remains at the heart of the housing market. Kensington and Chelsea remains the most expensive English local authority, with the average price around £1.4 million, while the City of Westminster sits just over £1 million and Camden around £876,000; London holes a large gap above many other areas, reflecting the capital’s enduring price strength. In London, a closer look reveals continued high values in central boroughs even as some surrounding areas have moved differently depending on supply and demand dynamics. These patterns come as the Office for National Statistics’ figures for May 2025 highlighted particular concentration of demand in London and other high-value boroughs, a theme that persisted into the summer. The same period also saw rents continuing to rise: average private rents rose in the year to July by around 5.9% to about £1,343 per month UK-wide, with England’s rents near £1,399 and Scotland near £999, illustrating ongoing pressure on living costs even as house-price growth steadies. The data also flag that, while price growth remains positive, the pace of rent inflation is easing from its earlier highs, a trend closely watched by borrowers and policymakers alike. (gov.uk, ons.gov.uk)

Against this backdrop, the policy landscape remains a critical driver of housing-market dynamics. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Summary for June 2025 confirmed Bank Rate at 4.25% after a 6–3 vote, with authorities emphasising a data-dependent path and a cautious, gradual approach to any further easing. Officials stressed that disinflation was under way but inflation remained above target in the near term, urging market participants to anchor expectations while monitoring the labour market for signs of pay growth re-accelerating. The minutes underscored that monetary policy would stay intentionally restrictive for the time being, even as the Committee acknowledged a margin of slack opening in the economy and pay growth moderating. In May, the BoE had already signalled a similar stance, noting inflation momentum and the uncertain balance of supply and demand. More recently, Reuters reported that on 7 August 2025 the Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 4.00% in a divided 5–4 decision, the result of a historically close vote that highlighted continued concerns over inflation versus growth. The split decision and the timing of the cut illustrate how policy communications and data shocks can shape the trajectory of mortgage rates and housing-market activity in the months ahead. Kensington and Chelsea’s price prominence, alongside the broader English average near £290,000, remains a variable in the policy outlook as authorities weigh the costs and benefits of additional easing against the risk of rekindled price pressures. (beta.bankofengland.co.uk, bankofengland.co.uk, gov.uk, reuters.com)

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Source: Noah Wire Services