Taylor Wimpey, the Buckinghamshire-based housebuilder, has reported a decline in sales activity over recent months, highlighting the upcoming autumn Budget as a factor contributing to waning homebuyer confidence. The company recorded a net private sales rate of 0.65 homes per outlet per week in the nine weeks leading up to September 28, lower than the 0.7 rate seen during the same period last year. Its total order book value stood at £2.12 billion, slightly below the £2.15 billion recorded last year. Despite these subdued figures, Taylor Wimpey remains on track to meet its target of completing sales of between 10,400 and 10,800 homes in 2025, with an operating profit forecast of approximately £424 million.

The housebuilder attributed the dip in sales in part to the economic environment, particularly high inflation and borrowing costs, which have affected affordability for potential buyers. Additionally, the company expressed concerns that uncertainty around possible tax changes in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s upcoming Budget, scheduled for November 26, could be causing prospective purchasers to delay decisions. There is speculation that the Budget might introduce increases in inheritance tax and capital gains tax, alongside potential reforms to property tax or the imposition of national insurance contributions on landlords’ rental income. Such fiscal measures are seen as potentially dampening short-term buyer sentiment.

Data from Nationwide Building Society released shortly before Taylor Wimpey’s report showed a modest 0.5% rise in average UK house prices in September, following a slight fall in August. Nationwide described these figures as indicative of positive underlying housing market conditions despite broader economic uncertainty, and predicted a gradual strengthening of market activity.

While Taylor Wimpey reported a downturn in recent sales rates, it expressed confidence in the fundamental need for new homes in the UK and its own capacity to improve profits amidst these challenges. The developer has also cautioned about rising construction costs throughout the year, as suppliers adjust to Budget-related tax changes and economic uncertainty. Nevertheless, it noted stronger footing entering 2025, buoyed by an uptick in sales in the latter half of the previous year. In 2024, the company completed the sale of 9,972 homes, a slight decline from 10,356 in 2023, but still within its previous guidance range.

Financially, Taylor Wimpey saw a 32% fall in pre-tax profit to £320.3 million in 2024 from £473.8 million in 2023, alongside a 3.2% drop in revenue to £3.40 billion. Meanwhile, the average selling price of privately sold homes in the UK decreased by 3.8% to £356,000 in 2024 from £370,000 the year before. Notably, despite these profit declines, the company highlighted a 21% increase in its UK net private sales rate to 0.75 homes per outlet per week in 2024 compared to 0.62 in 2023. Taylor Wimpey’s CEO Jennie Daly expressed optimism about the spring selling season, reporting robust demand and a positive outlook for the housing market.

Overall, Taylor Wimpey’s cautious tone underscores prevailing market fragilities, particularly the impact of cost pressures and fiscal uncertainty. Yet, the company’s continued confidence in the UK housing market’s long-term fundamentals reflects the enduring necessity for new housing supply amid economic headwinds and evolving tax policies.

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Source: Noah Wire Services