Business

Global economies brace for critical data releases amid cautious policy signals and renewed US-China trade truce

Monday, 10 November 2025 5:06AM UTC

Key economic indicators and central bank decisions across China, Japan, UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada are set to shape the global outlook, with recent US-China trade optimism offering a tentative boost amidst subdued inflation pressures.

Next week’s economic calendar highlights several pivotal data releases and central bank communications across major global economies, offering insights into inflation trends, labour markets, and trade policies.

In China, attention will focus on inflation and activity indicators for October. After consumer price inflation moderated further in September, with CPI down 0.3% year-on-year and month-on-month growth slowing to 0.1%, analysts currently expect the October CPI to remain slightly negative, around -0.2% year-on-year. This trend largely reflects ongoing declines in food prices that offset stabilising non-food categories. Meanwhile, producer prices continue to face downward pressure amid industrial overcapacity and sluggish housing and labour markets. Nonetheless, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has shown signs of gradual strengthening, rising by 1% year-on-year in September, the highest since February 2024, and accelerating further to 1.2% in October according to recent official data. These figures suggest domestic demand is firming somewhat, supporting a stabilisation of underlying inflation. The expectation is for inflation to remain subdued overall, underpinning the likelihood that Chinese policymakers will maintain targeted stimulus measures to support growth. October’s industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data are also awaited, with forecasts indicating a softening in retail and investment activity but a relatively resilient industrial output.

Trade relations between the United States and China have recently experienced a significant thaw. On November 1st, a new framework agreement was reached between Presidents Trump and Xi during discussions in South Korea, leading to a renewal of the trade truce until November 10, 2026. Under this accord, China has committed to suspending all retaliatory tariffs implemented since March 2025, lifting export controls on rare earth minerals crucial to technology sectors, and resuming substantial purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including at least 12 million metric tons of soybeans by year-end. In reciprocity, the U.S. will roll back specific tariffs related to fentanyl enforcement by 10 percentage points and extend exclusions on certain Section 301 tariffs through late 2026. The White House described the agreement as a "massive victory" and a historic step toward resolving longstanding economic and national security concerns, reflecting a careful recalibration of trade policies aimed at benefiting both countries’ economies.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan is set to release its Summary of Opinions from its October 29-30 policy meeting. The recent decision saw the BoJ maintain its overnight policy rate at 0.50% in a 7-2 vote, with two dissenting members advocating a 25 basis points hike. The bank reiterated its commitment to continue monetary tightening if economic and inflation conditions align with forecasts, aiming for a sustainable achievement of its 2% inflation target. Governor Ueda emphasised in the post-meeting press conference the high uncertainty surrounding global trade policy and economic outlooks, stating that there is no predetermined timing for further rate hikes. The BoJ’s projection suggests that underlying inflation is likely to stagnate amid slowing growth in the near term but then gradually rise, reaching levels consistent with the inflation target by the latter half of the 2025-2027 projection period.

Close to home, the United Kingdom is expected to release its September labour market data, with forecasts pointing to a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.9% from 4.8%, and wage growth anticipated to remain elevated at around 5%. While some signs indicate a modest cooling in wage pressures over the coming year, overall pay growth remains stubbornly high according to Bank of England corporate surveys, adding complexity to the inflation outlook. The data will be scrutinised alongside upcoming CPI releases and the November Budget to gauge the trajectory of inflation and influence the Bank of England’s forthcoming policy decisions.

In New Zealand, Q4 inflation expectations will be updated ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s final policy meeting of 2025 on November 26th. The central bank signalled a bias toward easing rates in October, although a recent headline inflation uptick to 3% has raised questions about the timing and magnitude of any prospective cuts. Market pricing currently reflects a high probability of a 25 basis points cut in November, with some chance of a larger 50 basis points reduction.

Australia’s October employment figures are expected to confirm a gradual moderation in labour market momentum following solid but slowing job gains in September. Forecasts envisage a modest rise in employment of approximately 15,000 positions and a slight fall in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Analysts note that employment growth has softened, particularly in labour-intensive sectors such as care services, and that participation rates may see a minor pullback.

Lastly, the Bank of Canada is expected to release minutes from its October meeting, which resulted in a widely anticipated 25 basis points rate cut to 2.25%. The BoC characterised current interest rates as close to neutral and hinted at a likely pause in easing moves, emphasizing the limited scope for monetary policy to further stimulate demand amid structural constraints imposed by trade tensions. Industry observers will be keen to discern whether the minutes signal a broad consensus leaning towards a holding pattern pending clearer economic data.

Together, these developments underscore a complex interplay of factors shaping the global economic outlook, from subdued inflation pressures and cautious central banks to evolving trade relations, all underpinned by varying degrees of domestic demand resilience across key economies.

📌 Reference Map:

^[1] InvestingLive - Paragraphs 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
^[2] White House Executive Order - Paragraph 2
^[3] China State Council Information Office - Paragraph 1
^[4] White House Press Release (Nov 1) - Paragraph 2
^[5] China's National Bureau of Statistics (Nov 9) - Paragraph 1
^[6] White House Joint Statement (Aug 11) - Paragraph 2
^[7] China's National Bureau of Statistics (Oct 16) - Paragraph 1

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://investinglive.com/centralbank/newsquawk-week-ahead-china-cpi-and-activity-data-uk-aussie-jobs-boj-soo-20251109/ - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-consistent-with-the-economic-and-trade-arrangement-between-the-united-states-and-the-peoples-republic-of-china/ - On November 4, 2025, the White House issued an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates between the United States and China. The order continues the suspension of heightened tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026, in line with the economic and trade arrangement between the two nations. This decision follows a meeting between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, in the Republic of Korea, where both leaders reached a historic agreement addressing trade imbalances and national security concerns. The arrangement includes commitments from China to suspend retaliatory tariffs, remove export controls on rare earth elements, and resume large-scale purchases of U.S. agricultural products. In return, the United States will roll back certain tariffs and extend Section 301 tariff exclusions through late 2026. The executive order aims to implement the terms of this agreement and address the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14257 by continuing the suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026.
https://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2025-10/15/content_118124810.html - On October 15, 2025, China's State Council Information Office reported that the country's core consumer price index (CPI) reached its highest level in 19 months, indicating a gradual strengthening in domestic demand. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and the largest increase since February 2024. This development suggests that domestic demand is firming, contributing to the stabilization of consumer prices in China.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/ - On November 1, 2025, the White House announced a significant trade and economic agreement between the United States and China. The deal includes Chinese commitments to halt the flow of fentanyl precursors into the U.S., eliminate export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals, end retaliation against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers, and open China's market to U.S. agricultural exports. In return, the United States will lower tariffs on Chinese imports related to fentanyl and maintain the suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs until November 10, 2026. The agreement aims to address trade imbalances and national security concerns, benefiting American workers, farmers, and families.
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202511/09/content_WS6910307ec6d00ca5f9a076e7.html - On November 9, 2025, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of acceleration in growth pace. The data indicates that domestic demand is gradually strengthening, contributing to the stabilization of consumer prices in China.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/08/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-stockholm/ - On August 11, 2025, the White House released a joint statement following the U.S.-China economic and trade meeting in Stockholm. The statement highlighted the continuation of discussions aimed at addressing trade reciprocity and national security concerns. The United States agreed to modify the application of additional ad valorem duties on Chinese imports by suspending 24 percentage points of the rate for an additional 90 days, starting on August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% rate. This decision reflects ongoing efforts to rebalance trade relations between the two nations.
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202510/t20251016_1961568.html - On October 16, 2025, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that the country's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025. The price index in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, while that in rural areas decreased by 0.5%. The price index for food decreased by 4.4%, while that for non-food increased by 0.7%. The data suggests that food prices are a significant factor contributing to the overall decline in the CPI, while non-food prices are experiencing moderate increases.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 8

Notes: The narrative includes recent data releases and events up to November 9, 2025, indicating high freshness. The China CPI data for October 2025 was released on November 9, 2025. ([china.org.cn](https://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2025-11/09/content_118167765.shtml?utm_source=openai)) The U.S.-China trade agreement was announced on November 1, 2025. ([whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/?utm_source=openai)) The report does not appear to be recycled content. However, the presence of a press release from the White House suggests that some information may be based on official statements. This typically warrants a high freshness score but should be noted. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. No similar content was found published more than 7 days earlier. The article includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged.

Quotes check

Score: 9

Notes: The narrative includes direct quotes from the White House press release dated November 1, 2025. ([whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/?utm_source=openai)) No identical quotes appear in earlier material, indicating potentially original or exclusive content. No variations in quote wording were found.

Source reliability

Score: 7

Notes: The narrative originates from InvestingLive, which is not a widely recognised or reputable organisation. This raises concerns about the reliability of the source. The White House press release is a reputable source, but its inclusion suggests that the narrative may be based on official statements. The presence of a press release from the White House suggests that some information may be based on official statements. This typically warrants a high freshness score but should be noted.

Plausability check

Score: 8

Notes: The narrative makes claims about the China CPI data for October 2025 and the U.S.-China trade agreement, both of which are corroborated by recent online information. The China CPI data for October 2025 was released on November 9, 2025. ([china.org.cn](https://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2025-11/09/content_118167765.shtml?utm_source=openai)) The U.S.-China trade agreement was announced on November 1, 2025. ([whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/?utm_source=openai)) The report lacks supporting detail from other reputable outlets, which is a concern. The narrative includes specific factual anchors, such as names, institutions, and dates, which supports its plausibility. The language and tone are consistent with the region and topic. No excessive or off-topic detail unrelated to the claim was found. The tone is formal and resembles typical corporate or official language.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary: The narrative includes recent data releases and events up to November 9, 2025, indicating high freshness. The presence of a press release from the White House suggests that some information may be based on official statements, which typically warrants a high freshness score but should be noted. The source, InvestingLive, is not widely recognised or reputable, raising concerns about reliability. The narrative makes claims about the China CPI data for October 2025 and the U.S.-China trade agreement, both of which are corroborated by recent online information. However, the report lacks supporting detail from other reputable outlets, which is a concern. The language and tone are consistent with the region and topic. Given these factors, the overall assessment is OPEN with a MEDIUM confidence level.

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