Meta Platforms is capturing renewed investor interest as it embarks on a significant new phase focused on artificial intelligence, supported by strong earnings growth and rising revenues. After a rocky period sparked by concerns over heavy AI investments, Meta’s share price has rebounded impressively, gaining over 8% year-to-date. Over the past three years, shareholders have enjoyed a 432% total return, a reflection of regained confidence in the company’s strategic pivot to AI and its disciplined operational approach.

The core of Meta’s optimistic outlook is its large-scale investment in AI infrastructure, including massive multi-gigawatt compute clusters and large language model (LLM) development. These investments are already bearing fruit, with user engagement on platforms like Instagram and Facebook showing more than a 20% increase in global video watch time year-over-year. This heightened engagement fuels advertising opportunities, helping to scale revenue and improve profitability. Analysts have accordingly set Meta’s fair value at around $841 per share, indicating the stock could be undervalued by approximately 23% versus its recent close near $648.

Meta's third-quarter earnings further underscore this momentum. The company reported a 35% jump in profits to almost $15.7 billion on revenues of $40.6 billion, beating expectations, largely driven by advances in advertising and AI integration. Daily active users across Meta’s family of apps remain substantial, with 3.29 billion people engaging daily, only slightly missing earlier estimates. As user growth stabilises, Meta is leaning heavily on AI to improve revenue per user by delivering more effective advertisements, particularly on Reels, its growing short-form video platform.

Yet Meta’s AI ambition comes with substantial costs that have spurred caution among investors. The company plans to ramp up capital expenditure dramatically, targeting between $60 billion and $65 billion in 2025 alone, up from $38–40 billion the previous year. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has emphasised the transformative potential of these investments, including the construction of a massive data centre consuming over 2 gigawatts of power and deployment of more than 1.3 million Nvidia AI chips. Despite these expenditures, Meta’s AI-powered advertising platform innovations, such as enhanced algorithms codenamed Andromeda and GEM, are boosting ad conversion rates and effectiveness. Expansion into retail media networks through improved API integrations further opens new revenue channels.

However, these massive spending plans have unsettled some investors, especially with forecasts pointing to almost $150 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, more than doubling the previous year’s figures. While this has raised concerns about free cash flow pressure and margin compression, emerging data shows that AI-driven revenue acceleration and increased ad efficiency are helping to offset these costs. Meta remains the largest of the tech giants by market capitalisation, valued around $1.63 trillion, and is often cited as the most undervalued stock within the influential "Magnificent 7" group based on price-to-earnings ratios.

CEO Zuckerberg's strategic shift from earlier metaverse ambitions to a focus on "superintelligence", AI systems capable of self-improvement and outperforming human cognition, marks a major evolution in Meta’s vision. The company has recruited extensively and established Meta Superintelligence Labs to spearhead this frontier, likened by some industry observers to historic projects of immense scale and ambition. Alongside AI-driven ad improvements, Meta is innovating with AI-powered consumer devices, such as its Ray-Ban smart glasses, which aim to integrate personal AI assistants into wearable tech, potentially transforming user interaction with technology.

Nonetheless, Meta faces ongoing regulatory challenges and risks related to continued high infrastructure spending. These factors may place pressure on margins and test the sustainability of the fast revenue growth currently enjoyed. Industry peers like Google and Microsoft are also aggressively investing in AI, intensifying competition in this rapidly evolving sector.

In summary, Meta Platforms stands at a critical juncture where its bold AI investments, solid earnings performance, and expanding user engagement are driving a strong valuation narrative. However, investors must weigh the promise of future AI-driven growth against the uncertainties posed by immense capex requirements and regulatory headwinds. The company's ability to convert these investments into sustained profit and market leadership will be closely watched as the AI landscape reshapes the tech industry.

📌 Reference Map:

  • [1] Simply Wall St - Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10
  • [2] AP News - Paragraphs 3, 8
  • [3] Reuters - Paragraphs 4, 6
  • [4] Investing.com - Paragraphs 5, 7, 8
  • [5] Investing.com - Paragraphs 6, 7
  • [6] AP News - Paragraph 3
  • [7] Le Monde - Paragraphs 8, 9, 10

Source: Noah Wire Services