A recent poll reveals Boris Johnson’s Conservatives maintain a slim lead over Reform UK, but under current leader Kemi Badenoch, the party falls behind both Reform and Labour amid mounting internal criticism and local election losses.
A recent opinion poll conducted by More In Common has produced significant insights into the current standing of the Conservative Party in relation to its competitors, particularly Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The survey indicates that under the leadership of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Conservatives hold a slim three-point lead over Reform UK. However, under Kemi Badenoch, the present Tory leader, the situation changes dramatically, with the Conservative Party trailing by eight points behind Reform and one point behind Labour.
The results of the poll highlight a sharp contrast between the perceived popularity of Johnson and the current position of Badenoch. Notably, Boris Johnson is not a sitting MP, raising questions about his potential re-entry into the political fray. Meanwhile, criticism regarding Badenoch's leadership continues to surface within party ranks, hinting at underlying concerns about the party's trajectory. An anonymous source, cited by The Independent, expressed doubt about Badenoch's capability to lead the party, stating, "We cannot continue as we are and she is just not up to the task."
The findings have sparked speculation about Badenoch's future, as her leadership faces scrutiny amid the rising popularity of Reform UK. Additionally, former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith has weighed in on the discourse surrounding potential leadership changes, cautioning against the idea of another leadership election. Writing for a publication, he remarked, "To those few Conservatives now briefing journalists that another leadership election is the answer... they are deluded." His assertion reflects concerns about ongoing instability within the party, which has already witnessed multiple leadership challenges over recent years.
Further complicating the picture, the Conservative Party experienced significant losses in local elections earlier this year, shedding 674 councillors. These developments, coupled with the poll results, suggest a precarious situation for Badenoch as she navigates internal party dynamics and external competition from parties like Reform UK.
As the landscape continues to evolve, the implications for the Conservative Party, particularly with respect to leadership and electoral strategies, remain critical areas of focus for political analysts and party members alike.
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative references recent events such as the local elections earlier this year and ongoing leadership speculation, contributing to a relatively high freshness rating. However, without a specific publication date or timestamp, there is some uncertainty regarding whether the details reflect very latest developments.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes attributed to an anonymous source and Sir Iain Duncan Smith. While the anonymous quote is echoed in other outlets, the attribution and wording are consistent with recent reports from reputable media. The Duncan Smith quote is plausible and matches public statements; however, definitive evidence of the exact wording in prior public sources is not found, supporting originality.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The narrative originates from the Express, a mainstream news outlet with a mixed reputation for political coverage. The Independent is cited for an anonymous quote. The overall reliability is moderate due to the Express's often polarising editorial stance and lack of direct attribution for some claims.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative's assertions align with widely reported trends in UK politics, including Conservative Party struggles, the rise of Reform UK, and internal leadership dissatisfaction. While some details lack direct verification, the overall scenario is highly plausible and consistent with recent news cycles.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative presents a plausible and relatively fresh account of the Conservative Party's current predicament, supported by credible poll data and high-profile commentary. However, certain quotes and details lack direct, verifiable attribution in reputable public sources, and the reliability of the primary outlet is only moderate. The story aligns with recent political developments, but further verification of sources and dates is advised.
