Robert Jenrick has advocated for the UK to emulate former US President Donald Trump’s economic strategy by drastically reducing migration levels to stimulate economic growth. Jenrick, the Shadow Justice Secretary, criticised the UK’s longstanding approach, tracing it back to former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair, whom he labelled the “founding father of mass migration.” He argued that the prevailing consensus among British political and economic elites that mass migration is an unalloyed economic benefit is fundamentally flawed.

Jenrick pointed to the US under Trump, where immigration controls were tightened, particularly on highly skilled migration, as a model for generating higher economic growth. He noted that Trump’s administration made it more difficult and costly for international students and foreign workers to enter the US, including imposing a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, which are used extensively by companies to fill specialised roles. Despite this, Trump’s policy still prioritised attracting highly skilled workers in key sectors. Jenrick suggested that the UK has over-relied on low-skilled foreign labour, which has contributed to stagnant wages, skills development, and innovation—a situation illustrated by the country’s low adoption of robotics and technology compared to other developed nations. He expressed hope that sharply curbing migration numbers would foster a renaissance of British economic growth and a shift towards higher productivity industries.

The context for this argument is significant demographic change projected for the UK over the next decade. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK population is expected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032—an increase of approximately 4.9 million people or 7.3% from the current estimate of 67.6 million. This growth is almost entirely driven by net migration, which the ONS projects will average around 340,000 people annually from 2028 onwards. Crucially, the difference between births and deaths is forecasted to be roughly neutral, placing the entire burden of population increase on migration. This rise in population will place further pressure on public services including the NHS, housing, roads, and schools, alongside an expected increase in older age groups such as those aged 85 and over.

Migration trends have already shifted recently, with net migration to the UK more than halving from a peak of 906,000 in June 2023 to 431,000 in 2024. This sharp decline was primarily due to tighter visa rules reducing the number of arrivals on work and study visas, according to ONS data. Annual net migration dropped from a record 764,000 in 2022 to 685,000 in 2023. While it remains unclear whether this indicates a lasting downward trend, the political climate is intensely focused on controlling migration. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer both face pressure to reduce migration levels, and new visa regulations aim to limit legal migration, particularly targeting international students and skilled workers.

Jenrick’s emphasis on reducing low-skilled immigration while still welcoming highly skilled, entrepreneurial migrants echoes some elements of Trump’s policies, though the US approach has been both economically and politically divisive. Critics argue that reducing migration risks exacerbating labour shortages and slowing economic dynamism, while proponents see it as a necessary step to revitalise domestic workforce investment and innovation. The UK’s future migration policy is likely to remain a contentious subject as it balances demographic pressures, economic growth ambitions, and political demands for immigration control.

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Source: Noah Wire Services