Environment

UK experiences unusually warm week amid rising climate trends and heavy rain warnings

Tuesday, 4 November 2025 5:09AM UTC

Britons face a week of unseasonably warm weather with record-breaking temperatures, alongside heavy rainfall and flood risks, highlighting ongoing impacts of climate change across the UK.

Britons are set to experience unusually warm weather this week, with the Met Office forecasting "unseasonably mild" conditions for November. Temperatures are expected to reach highs of up to 18°C in eastern parts of England by Wednesday, marking a significant departure from the typical November average maximum of 11°C in the south of England. London itself could see temperatures soaring to 17°C this Thursday—warmer than cities such as Madrid and Istanbul at this time of year.

According to a Met Office spokesperson, temperatures will consistently remain above average throughout the week, though they are anticipated to return to near-normal levels by next weekend. The warm spell will be accompanied by notably mild nights, with minimum temperatures in some southern areas only dropping to around 14°C on Wednesday night, while rural parts of Scotland and Wales may experience lows near 6°C. The emergence of milder air has prompted the forecaster to advise residents that heavy coats may be unnecessary, recommending lighter raincoats instead due to some expected rainfall.

Despite the pleasant warmth, the Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for Tuesday, warning of "persistent and at times heavy rain" that could disrupt transport services and cause localized flooding. They have cautioned people to check flood advice, prepare flood plans and emergency kits if necessary, and take extra care on the roads by slowing down and avoiding flood-prone areas. The rain follows a spell of heavy precipitation on Monday and has the potential to create hazardous conditions for homes, businesses, and travel routes.

This week’s warmth fits into a broader pattern of rising temperatures across the UK. Data from the Met Office shows that 2023 was the second warmest year on record for the UK, with a provisional mean temperature of 9.97°C—just marginally cooler than the record set in 2022. Both Wales and Northern Ireland experienced their warmest years, while eight out of the twelve months in 2023 were warmer than average. The year included significant heatwaves, pointing to a clear and consistent warming trend linked to human-induced climate change.

Preliminary figures for 2024 suggest it will likely rank as the fourth warmest year on record, continuing this upward trajectory in temperature extremes. 2024 also marked the equal-warmest average minimum temperature for the UK, meaning nights have become notably milder overall. These shifts underscore the pressing need for ongoing monitoring, adaptation, and mitigation strategies to manage the impacts of climate change on daily life and infrastructure.

Northern Ireland, in particular, has seen remarkable warmth in recent months. November 2023 recorded a historic 16.1°C at Murlough, County Down—the warmest November night on record there—and other parts of the country saw temperature records broken as mild south-westerly air, drawn from tropical regions, influenced by the jet stream’s position, swept across the island. High-pressure systems dominated during that time, creating settled, mild conditions that made coats and central heating largely unnecessary for many residents.

Met Éireann’s November 2023 climate statement noted a warm and wet autumn, with periods of flooding in October followed by a cold snap in late November caused by Arctic air masses. This contrasting weather highlights the variability and extremes the region faces even amid an overarching warming trend.

In summary, the mild weather expected this week is part of a larger climatic shift that has brought the UK a series of warmer-than-average years, changing seasonal norms. While the warmth offers a temporary respite from typical November chill, it comes alongside challenges such as increased rainfall and flood risks. Authorities continue to urge caution, preparedness, and awareness as the country navigates these evolving weather patterns in a changing climate landscape.

📌 Reference Map:

^[1] (The Independent) – Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
^[2] (Met Office 2023 Warmest Year Report) – Paragraph 6
^[3] (Met Office 2024 Provisional Data) – Paragraph 7
^[4] (Belfast Telegraph) – Paragraph 8
^[5] (Newsletter) – Paragraph 9
^[6] (Met Éireann Climate Statement) – Paragraph 10
^[7] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 6

Source: Noah Wire Services

More on this

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecast-warm-autumn-met-office-b2857402.html - Please view link - unable to able to access data
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2023/2023-was-second-warmest-year-on-record-for-uk - In 2023, the UK experienced its second warmest year on record, with a provisional mean temperature of 9.97°C, just behind 2022's 10.03°C. Both Wales and Northern Ireland had their warmest years, indicating a significant trend in rising temperatures. The year also saw eight out of twelve months being warmer than average, with notable heatwaves in June and September. This warming trend is consistent with global climate patterns and underscores the impact of human-induced climate change on the UK's climate system.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/2024-provisionally-the-fourth-warmest-year-on-record-for-the-uk - Provisional data indicates that 2024 was the UK's fourth warmest year on record, with a mean temperature of 9.78°C, surpassing the 1991-2020 average by 0.64°C. This follows the warmest years of 2022 and 2023, highlighting a consistent upward trend in temperatures. The year also experienced its equal-warmest average minimum temperature, reflecting a broader pattern of warming. These trends are attributed to human-induced climate change, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring and adaptation strategies.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/records-fall-during-unseasonably-warm-november/34187409.html - In November 2023, Northern Ireland experienced unseasonably warm weather, with a record-breaking temperature of 16.1°C at Murlough, County Down, marking the warmest November night since records began. Other areas, such as Waddington, Lincolnshire, and Leconfield, Humberside, also reported record-breaking temperatures. These conditions led to the UK being warmer than cities like Madrid, Milan, and Athens during the same period. The Met Office attributed this warmth to mild south-westerly air drawn from tropical regions, influenced by the jet stream's position.
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/weather/northern-ireland-weather-why-is-it-so-mild-in-november-that-neither-coats-nor-central-heating-are-needed-the-met-office-explains-4852732 - In November 2023, Northern Ireland experienced unusually mild weather, with temperatures reaching 14.6°C at Magilligan on 1st November. The Met Office explained that high pressure dominated the weather, leading to cloudy, settled, and mild conditions. The jet stream's position allowed tropical air from the south to sweep over the UK, resulting in these unseasonably warm temperatures. This pattern contributed to the warm conditions, making it unnecessary to use coats or central heating during that period.
https://www.met.ie/climate-statement-for-november-2023 - Met Éireann's Climate Statement for November 2023 highlighted a warm and wet autumn, with heatwaves in September and flooding in October. November was mild overall but finished cold, with the final third of the month turning progressively colder and drier due to high-pressure dominance. The season concluded with an Arctic air mass bringing widespread frost. Rainfall was above average in most places, with the South being the wettest, and the Southeast experiencing drier conditions.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/2023-second-hottest-year-climate-change-temperature-met-office-b1129921.html - According to the Met Office, 2023 was the UK's second warmest year on record, with an average mean temperature of 9.97°C, just behind 2022's 10.03°C. Wales and Northern Ireland had their warmest years, indicating a significant trend in rising temperatures. The year also ranked as the second warmest for the Central England Temperature, the world's longest instrumental temperature series from 1659. This underscores the impact of climate change on the UK's climate system.

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score: 8

Notes: The narrative reports on a Met Office forecast for unusually warm weather in early November 2025, with temperatures reaching up to 18°C in eastern England and 17°C in London. This specific forecast appears to be original and not recycled from previous reports. However, similar warm weather patterns have been observed in recent years, with 2024 being the fourth warmest year on record for the UK. ([metoffice.gov.uk](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2024-provisionally-the-fourth-warmest-year-on-record-for-the-uk?utm_source=openai)) The report includes updated data but does not recycle older material, justifying a higher freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The narrative is not based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No republishing across low-quality sites or clickbait networks was identified. No similar content appeared more than 7 days earlier. The update may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged.

Quotes check

Score: 10

Notes: The narrative includes a direct quote from a Met Office spokesperson regarding the expected temperatures. A search for the earliest known usage of this quote did not reveal any identical matches, indicating that the quote is potentially original or exclusive content. No variations in wording were found, and no earlier material with identical quotes was identified.

Source reliability

Score: 9

Notes: The narrative originates from The Independent, a reputable UK news outlet. The Met Office, a credible source, is cited for the weather forecast. No unverifiable entities are mentioned, and the information aligns with known data from the Met Office.

Plausability check

Score: 9

Notes: The claim of unseasonably warm weather in early November 2025 is plausible, given recent trends in UK climate data. The Met Office's forecast aligns with historical data, including the record-breaking warm summer of 2025. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/uk-summer-was-its-warmest-since-records-began-says-met-office-2025-09-01/?utm_source=openai)) The narrative lacks specific factual anchors such as names, institutions, or dates, which slightly reduces the score. The language and tone are consistent with typical UK weather reporting. No excessive or off-topic details are present, and the tone is neither unusually dramatic nor vague.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH

Summary: The narrative presents a plausible and original report on the Met Office's forecast for unseasonably warm weather in early November 2025. The information is consistent with recent climate trends and is sourced from reputable entities. No significant issues were identified in the checks, leading to a high confidence in the assessment.

Climate change
UK weather
Met Office