A recent surge in support for Reform UK is causing significant concern within the Labour Party as new polling data reveals that a number of Labour MPs could lose their seats if a general election were held today. According to Briony Richer, communications director at Electoral Calculus, tactical voting is beginning to emerge as a powerful force that may reshape key constituencies, even as Reform UK currently leads the polls. The survey of over 10,000 voters suggests that vote splitting among Labour, independents, and other parties could enable Reform to claim several prominent seats, putting figures like Rachel Reeves and Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, in jeopardy.

This growing trend of tactical voting indicates that while Reform UK maintains solid core support, there is strong resistance to the party from a large portion of the electorate. Richer explains that roughly 70% of voters would prefer a party other than Reform UK, which could lead to coordinated voting strategies designed to block Nigel Farage’s party. Yet even with these dynamics in play, Reform UK’s current 30% vote share means they are positioned to be a major player in the next election, if trends hold.

Notably, some high-profile Labour MPs face considerable risk. For example, Yvette Cooper is reported to have an 86% chance of losing her seat to Reform under current conditions, according to GB News’ Martin Daubney. Others at risk include Wes Streeting, who has previously denounced Farage, and Rachel Reeves, who stands at a 60% chance of losing her seat. The potential for what has been described as “the mother of all tactical voting campaigns” could see left-wing and liberal voters uniting against Reform UK to prevent Farage from gaining more power.

Additional polling models reinforce the narrative of Labour’s sharp decline and Reform UK’s rise. One poll-aggregating analysis projects Labour losing as many as 163 seats, representing a 40% reduction, with Reform UK gaining 114 seats and the Conservatives 137, resulting in a hung Parliament. Another sophisticated Nowcast Model predicts Labour would lose 39% of its Cabinet, with Reform UK gaining 142 seats to become the official opposition, ahead of the Conservatives. The volatility of the political landscape is further underscored by forecasts projecting Reform UK winning as many as 271 seats, with Labour falling to 178 and the Conservatives dropping to fourth place.

The potential shift in voter allegiance appears to be driven partially by disillusionment with the current Labour leadership and policies, as well as a growing loyalty among Reform UK supporters. Electoral Calculus' research shows that over a third of Labour voters would be willing to support the Conservatives if it meant stopping Reform UK from gaining more seats. Conversely, Reform voters tend to remain loyal to their party regardless of match-ups between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. This entrenched loyalty, combined with tactical voting from other groups, is key to understanding the potential electoral upheaval ahead.

If these polling trends materialise, the next General Election could see a dramatic reconfiguration of UK politics. Reform UK, currently led by Nigel Farage, might emerge as the dominant opposition force, posing a direct threat to established parties, particularly Labour. However, electoral outcomes remain uncertain, as the evolving phenomenon of tactical voting could alter seat distributions and necessitate coalitions or power-sharing arrangements in Parliament.

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Source: Noah Wire Services