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Donald Trump's second term delivers mixed economic results and erodes global standing
Donald Trump's second term (January 2025–February 2026) achieved reduced illegal immigration crossings and modest tax relief but failed to lower inflation or improve healthcare affordability. Tariff volatility and deregulation widened wealth inequality and reduced manufacturing jobs. Internationally, US approval plummeted among allies while China's standing rose, fracturing the Western alliance. While GDP grew 2.2%, 52% of Americans believe economic conditions worsened, and Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts described the rule of law as endangered due to executive overreach.
The EU is moving on from neoliberalism
The European Union is shifting away from its neoliberal foundations due to global fragmentation, rising Russian threats, and eroding trust in the United States. Analysts suggest Europe must build independent state and industrial capacity, including a military command structure and domestic tech giants, to de-risk from US dependence. This transition involves adopting protectionist measures like tariffs and subsidies to foster manufacturing for defense and economic security, marking a move from globalization-driven growth to a more interventionist model focused on civilizational defense against authoritarianism.
Trump signs ICE bill to end DHS shutdown
President Donald Trump signed a controversial Immigration and Customs Enforcement funding bill aimed at ending the Department of Homeland Security shutdown. The legislation triggers legal scrutiny and political divisions within the Republican Party regarding enforcement levels. While the bill addresses border security, it creates operational uncertainty for agencies like the TSA and Secret Service, raising compliance risks and increasing demand for public sector legal expertise.
Trump administration uses DHS to assert federal control over state elections
An investigation by Reuters reveals that the Trump administration is using the Department of Homeland Security to quietly assert federal control over elections in at least eight US states. Officials are seeking confidential voter records, accessing voting equipment, and reexamining rejected fraud cases. These actions occur despite the US Constitution reserving election administration for states. Critics allege the efforts involve racial profiling and attempts to invalidate votes by questioning citizenship. The push includes requests in Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Missouri, raising concerns about intimidation and disenfranchisement ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Bookmakers back Keir Starmer to be ousted before end of year
Betting markets indicate Prime Minister Keir Starmer is heavily favoured to be replaced before the end of the year. Angela Rayner remains the top choice for the Labour leadership, followed by Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, and Ed Miliband. The list of potential successors includes Nigel Farage and various other political figures, reflecting speculation over Starmer's political survival.
Senator Tim Scott signals imminent Senate floor vote on Clarity Act
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is approaching a committee markup expected in May 2026. The bipartisan legislation aims to establish regulatory boundaries for digital assets in the United States. Scott indicated that unified Republican support within the committee is a precondition for advancing the bill, following a postponement of the January 2026 markup due to jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC.
Congressional Progressive Caucus Releases New Affordability Agenda
The Congressional Progressive Caucus released its New Affordability Agenda, a plan containing 10 concrete legislative reforms aimed at addressing rising costs in healthcare, energy, housing, childcare, and wages. Endorsed by 22 national organizations, the initiative seeks to unite Democrats behind popular measures with over 60 percent public support, contrasting with more divisive flagship reforms. The agenda was presented by caucus members including Ilhan Omar, Pramila Jayapal, and Greg Casar to counter voter cynicism ahead of upcoming congressional elections.
Partial government shutdown ends after Trump signs DHS budget bill
An 11-week partial US government shutdown ended on Thursday when President Donald Trump signed legislation restoring funding to the Department of Homeland Security. The resolution required Republicans to exclude Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection from the bill, a compromise their leadership had previously refused. DHS agencies including the Transportation Security Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which had operated without guaranteed funding since February 14, will now receive necessary appropriations. The standoff began in early February when Democrats demanded ICE reforms following the killing of two US citizens during federal immigration raids in Minnesota.
Europe challenges Israel as US credibility erodes
Analysts argue that a pattern of US escalation and retreat under Trump 2.0 has reduced the cost of dissent for European governments. Consequently, several European nations are adopting a more assertive stance on Israel and the war in Gaza, including calls for ceasefires, debates over suspending economic ties, and potential recognition of Palestine. This shift reflects a move from automatic deference to conditional alignment, as European leaders test boundaries where US pressure no longer appears decisive.
GOP lawmakers express frustration over Mike Johnson leadership style
Republican lawmakers have voiced intense frustration with House Speaker Mike Johnson following a week of floor chaos and broken promises regarding an ethanol fuel measure. Multiple members accused Johnson of reneging on agreements and failing to deliver on votes, leading to shouting matches and closed-door complaints. While Johnson dismissed the criticism as fake news, rank-and-file members worry about the party's ability to govern and retain its majority. The internal discord has also drawn mockery from Democrats, who contrast the current GOP disarray with past leadership.
Kevin Warsh nomination as Fed Chair may lead to leadership change by May 31
Market pricing indicates a 92.3% probability of Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair by May 15 and a 97.8% likelihood of Jerome Powell's exit by May 31. Warsh's potential support for interest rate cuts amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could influence his confirmation prospects. The Federal Reserve currently maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Observers are monitoring the Senate Banking Committee and economic data for further developments.
European Parliament approves Turnberry Deal with safeguards against US leverage
In March 2026, the European Parliament approved parts of the legally non-binding Turnberry Deal, a trade agreement concluded in July 2025 between the EU and the USA. Following postponements due to geopolitical threats, the approval paves the way for trilogue negotiations aimed at tariff reductions. The deal involves significant EU concessions, including tariff eliminations on US industrial goods and commitments to reduce bureaucratic burdens on US companies regarding sustainability regulations. However, the Parliament's approval includes conditional mechanisms to quickly respond to external threats, reflecting concerns over the agreement's asymmetrical nature and the risk of US tariffs being used as geopolitical leverage.
Edinburgh constituencies too close to call one week before vote
Dr Eoghan Kelly of Devolved Election Projections states it is reasonably likely the SNP could lose three marginal Edinburgh seats: Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Northern & Edinburgh North Eastern, and Leith. Using Monte Carlo simulations, DEP projects the SNP has a 47% chance of winning Edinburgh Central against Green Lorna Slater, while holding narrow leads in the other two. A loss in these seats could significantly impact the SNP's chances of securing a majority at Holyrood, potentially altering regional list seat allocations for the Greens, Reform, Labour, and Lib Dems.
Trump briefed on Iran military options impacting Bitcoin and oil markets
U.S. President Donald Trump has been briefed on further military options in Iran as a 60-day ceasefire deadline approaches. This development indicates potential conflict escalation, influencing Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil markets. Bitcoin pricing shows decreased confidence reflecting risk-off sentiment, while oil markets face upward pressure due to fears of supply disruptions. Congressional approval for continued operations remains a key factor.
Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
US President Donald Trump received a briefing from military commanders regarding potential strategies for the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict. Options discussed include infrastructure strikes, seizing the Strait of Hormuz, and a special forces mission to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. The situation remains deadlocked over the nuclear program, with congressional approval required for operations beyond the current 60-day threshold. Market activity reflects increased pricing for a US invasion scenario.
Swinney says Holyrood election offers chance to chart new course for Scotland
Scottish First Minister John Swinney stated that next week's Holyrood election provides an opportunity for Scotland to chart a new course. He contrasted the potential benefits of independence with the damaging impact of Westminster decisions regarding austerity and Brexit. Swinney aims to secure an overall majority for the SNP to enable a second vote on the future of the UK and to implement measures addressing the cost-of-living crisis, including food price controls and bus fare caps.
Senate Banking Committee advances Coinbase backed Clarity Act toward summer 2026 signature
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is pushing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act toward a presidential signature by summer 2026. The committee markup is scheduled for this month, with over 100 industry groups demanding action. The bill, which previously cleared the House in July 2025, aims to resolve SEC vs CFTC jurisdictional overlap and establish stablecoin regulations. Support includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and White House adviser Patrick Witt. Passage could unlock institutional adoption by clarifying regulatory boundaries.
House passes DHS funding bill to end government shutdown
The US House of Representatives passed a measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security on Thursday, clearing a major hurdle to ending a record-long partial government shutdown. Speaker Mike Johnson rallied his majority to approve the Senate's proposal, sending it to President Donald Trump. The vote also included a resolution unlocking budget reconciliation and a three-year extension of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act with specific reforms. Additionally, the House passed a farm bill to revamp agricultural policy. The legislation now awaits presidential signature.
Gerrymandering maps reshape power ahead of 2026 midterms
Ahead of the 2026 US midterms, gerrymandering is influencing congressional seat allocations across multiple states. Virginia's Supreme Court is reviewing new Democratic-proposed maps that could grant the party four additional House seats. Republicans, supported by President Donald Trump, aim to retain their slim House majority through redistricting in Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has also called for a special session to redraw maps. Nationwide, these efforts could result in nine extra seats for Republicans and up to ten for Democrats depending on legal outcomes.
Louisiana suspends congressional primary following Supreme Court ruling
Republican Governor Jeff Landry issued an executive order suspending Louisiana's congressional primaries scheduled for May 16. This decision follows a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down a majority Black congressional district. Early voting, originally set to begin Saturday, is now cancelled to allow state lawmakers time to draw new House districts. Primaries for other state offices remain on schedule. President Donald Trump has urged other states to consider revising their districts in response to the court decision.