Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Shell faces a mixed first quarter with increased trading profits but lowered output forecasts due to supply disruptions, leaving investors cautious ahead of upcoming results.
Shell is due to report first-quarter results on Thursday as the fallout from conflict in the Middle East ripples through energy markets and the company’s own operations. Analysts cited by AJ Bell expect adjusted earnings of $6.36 billion, up about 14% from a year earlier, while market volatility has lifted expectations for the group’s trading performance. Shell had already told investors that its chemicals and products division, which includes oil trading, was likely to deliver a sharply stronger quarter after energy prices spiked.
The upside from trading has come alongside fresh pressure on output. In its first-quarter update note, Shell said it now expects integrated gas production of 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, below its earlier forecast range and weaker than the final quarter of last year. The company also guided LNG liquefaction volumes to 7.6 million to 8.0 million tonnes. According to Shell, the revisions reflect disruption tied to the Middle East conflict, including the impact on Qatari volumes.
Reports from Rigzone and The Guardian said the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar stopped producing after an attack, while LNG assets in the country partly owned by Shell were also affected. Those supply interruptions have helped push Brent crude, jet fuel and gas prices higher, with Brent briefly touching $126 a barrel before easing back. The Strait of Hormuz has remained heavily disrupted, adding to concern across the global energy market.
Even so, Shell may get some cushioning from stronger refining economics. Rigzone reported that the company expects refining margins to rise to $17 a barrel from $14 in the previous quarter. That comes as rival BP last week reported first-quarter profit more than doubling, intensifying investor scrutiny of Shell’s own numbers. Shell also recently agreed to buy Canada’s ARC Resources in a $16.4 billion deal that it says will bolster gas reserves and production for decades, though investors are likely to focus first on how the Middle East turmoil has affected trading, margins and output.
Source Reference Map
Inspired by headline at: [1]
Sources by paragraph:
- Paragraph 1: [2], [3], [4], [7]
- Paragraph 2: [2], [6], [7]
- Paragraph 3: [3], [4], [6]
- Paragraph 4: [1], [3], [4], [5]
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on May 1, 2026, which is within the past week, indicating recent reporting. The content references Shell's first-quarter 2026 update note, dated April 8, 2026, and discusses the impact of the Middle East conflict on Shell's operations, particularly in Qatar. This suggests the article is based on recent developments. However, the article's reliance on a single source, The Independent, raises concerns about source independence. Additionally, the article includes a headline from The Independent, which may indicate partial reliance on that source. Given these factors, the freshness score is high, but the source independence is a concern.
Quotes check
Score:
6
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Shell's first-quarter 2026 update note, dated April 8, 2026. These quotes are verifiable and originate from Shell's official communication. However, the article does not provide direct quotes from other independent sources, which limits the ability to cross-verify the information. The lack of independent verification for some claims is a concern.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The Independent is a reputable UK-based news outlet. However, the article's reliance on a single source and the inclusion of a headline from The Independent suggest potential source dependence. The lack of additional independent sources to corroborate the information is a concern.
Plausibility check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article discusses Shell's first-quarter 2026 update note, dated April 8, 2026, which is publicly available. The claims about Shell's gas production outlook and the impact of the Middle East conflict on operations in Qatar are consistent with information from Shell's official communications. However, the article does not provide direct quotes from other independent sources to corroborate these claims, which limits the ability to fully verify the information.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): CONDITIONAL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article provides recent information on Shell's first-quarter 2026 update and the impact of the Middle East conflict on its operations in Qatar. While the content is timely and includes verifiable quotes from Shell's official communications, the heavy reliance on a single source and the lack of independent verification raise concerns about the reliability and independence of the information presented. Given these factors, the overall assessment is CONDITIONAL, with a MEDIUM confidence level.
