Prediction markets in the United States are shifting from a brief election-driven phenomenon to a more durable, consumer-focused industry, with leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi capturing nearly 95% of demand amidst a steady eight-month growth trajectory.
Prediction markets in the United States have moved from a novelty to a fast-growing trading category, with branded demand rising more than fivefold since August 2025, according to Blask data cited by Gaming Americas and iGamingFuture. Even so, the market remains below its previous peak: demand is still about 49% shy of the record set during the November 2024 US election period, when political uncertainty briefly pushed interest to extraordinary levels.
What is different this time is the shape of the recovery. Rather than a single election-driven spike, the latest upswing has been building month by month for eight straight months, suggesting that user interest is becoming more durable. That shift points to a market that is beginning to look less like a short-lived election trade and more like a persistent consumer product.
The gains, however, are being captured by a very small number of companies. Blask’s data shows that Polymarket and Kalshi together account for roughly 94% of branded demand in the US prediction market space as of March 2026. Gaming Americas reported Polymarket at 59.6% and Kalshi at 19.6%, while Tribuna separately said Polymarket alone was close to 60% and Kalshi held 19.6%, underlining how heavily the sector is concentrated around the two leading platforms.
That dominance is also visible at state level. California leads the country with 15.9% of total branded demand, followed by New York with 10.8%, and together the two states make up more than a quarter of national interest. Yet the rivalry between the top two operators varies sharply by region: Kansas is overwhelmingly tilted towards Polymarket, while Louisiana is far more competitive, according to Blask’s analysis. The pattern suggests that local demand dynamics matter as much as national momentum, especially in a category still finding its long-term footing.
Smaller rivals remain on the margins. Gaming Americas said the rest of the field accounts for just 6% of branded demand, with Myriad the nearest challenger but still below 1%. Robinhood stands out as the fastest-growing name in the segment, with year-on-year growth of 983.4%, although its share remains tiny at 0.24%. Other recent industry reporting has also pointed to a broader shift towards regulated venues and event contracts tied to sports as part of the category’s expansion, reinforcing the view that prediction markets are becoming more mainstream even as power becomes more concentrated.
Source Reference Map
Inspired by headline at: [1]
Sources by paragraph:
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
6
Notes:
The article references data from Blask, Gaming Americas, and Tribuna, with publication dates ranging from March 18 to April 30, 2026. The earliest known publication date of substantially similar content is March 18, 2026, indicating that the narrative has appeared before. The article includes updated data but recycles older material, which raises concerns about freshness. Additionally, the article is republished across low-quality sites or clickbait networks, which further diminishes its freshness score. Given these factors, the freshness score is reduced to 6.
Quotes check
Score:
5
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Blask data, Gaming Americas, and Tribuna. However, these quotes cannot be independently verified, as no online matches are found. The lack of verifiable quotes raises concerns about the authenticity and reliability of the information presented. Given this, the quotes check score is reduced to 5.
Source reliability
Score:
4
Notes:
The narrative originates from iGamingFuture, a niche publication. The lead source appears to be summarising or rewriting content from other publications, including Gaming Americas and Tribuna. This raises concerns about the originality and independence of the content. Given these factors, the source reliability score is reduced to 4.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article presents data on the surge in U.S. prediction market demand and the dominance of Polymarket and Kalshi. While the claims are plausible, they lack supporting detail from other reputable outlets, which raises concerns about the comprehensiveness and verification of the information. Given this, the plausibility check score is reduced to 7.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents a narrative on the surge in U.S. prediction market demand and the dominance of Polymarket and Kalshi. However, the content lacks freshness, with earlier versions appearing more than seven days earlier. The quotes cannot be independently verified, and the source reliability is questionable due to potential summarisation and lack of independence. Additionally, the verification sources lack genuine independence, further undermining the credibility of the information. Given these concerns, the overall assessment is a FAIL with MEDIUM confidence.
