Demands in US prediction markets have surged fivefold since August 2025, yet almost all trading volume is captured by Kalshi and Polymarket, raising questions about industry diversification as the sector stabilises beyond political spikes.
Prediction markets in the United States have moved from a novelty to a fast-growing trade, but the expansion is proving highly concentrated. New analysis from Blask, reported by iGamingFuture, suggests demand has risen more than five times since August 2025, yet almost all of that uplift has flowed to just two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket.
The sector’s latest run has been more durable than the sharp election-related spike seen in late 2024. Blask says current demand is still about 49% below the peak reached during the November 2024 presidential contest, when interest was driven by a single major event. By contrast, the recent increase has built steadily over eight consecutive months, pointing to a market that may be developing a more stable user base rather than simply reacting to political news.
The dominance of the leading pair is striking. According to Blask’s March 2026 data, Polymarket and Kalshi together account for roughly 94% of branded demand in U.S. prediction markets. The gap is even more pronounced in some states: Kansas is overwhelmingly tilted towards Polymarket, while Louisiana shows a tighter contest. Outside the top two, the rest of the category remains marginal, with Myriad the nearest challenger but still holding less than 1% of demand.
Other reports reinforce the same pattern of concentration. Tribuna said in March that the U.S. prediction market industry had rebounded strongly in 2025 after a post-election slump, with Polymarket taking nearly 60% of total demand and Kalshi broadening the market beyond politics through sports-linked contracts. Separate industry data for March 2026 points to record trading volumes as well, with Kalshi and Polymarket together processing tens of billions of dollars, helped by marquee events such as March Madness.
Even so, the broader picture is not simply one of a duopoly freezing out the field. Robinhood is showing the fastest growth rate in the category, with Blask putting its year-on-year increase at 983.4%, albeit from a very small base. Blask also says demand is heavily clustered by geography, with California and New York leading national interest. That underlines how prediction markets are evolving: less as a series of short-lived betting spikes, and more as a durable, state-by-state contest for attention, liquidity and scale.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on 1st May 2026, reporting on data up to March 2026. The earliest known publication date of similar content is 18th March 2026, with Tribuna reporting a 256% increase in prediction market demand in 2025. ([tribuna.com](https://tribuna.com/amp/en/casino/news/2026-03-18-prediction-markets-jump-256-in-2025-after-postelection-collapse-with-polymarket-alone-con/?utm_source=openai)) The iGamingFuture article provides more recent data, indicating a 5x surge in demand over eight months, with Polymarket and Kalshi accounting for 94% of the market share as of March 2026. The overlap in reporting dates and data suggests that the iGamingFuture article is building upon previous reports, potentially recycling content. However, the inclusion of more recent data and analysis indicates a moderate level of freshness.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Blask's data and analysis. However, these quotes cannot be independently verified through the provided sources, as Blask's official publications are not accessible. The reliance on unverified quotes raises concerns about the accuracy and authenticity of the information presented.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The article is published on iGamingFuture, a niche publication focusing on the iGaming industry. While it provides detailed insights, the lack of broader recognition and potential biases associated with niche publications may affect the reliability of the information. Additionally, the article heavily relies on data from Blask, a company that may have vested interests in promoting the growth of prediction markets. This raises concerns about the objectivity and independence of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The claims of a 5x surge in prediction market demand over eight months and the dominance of Polymarket and Kalshi are plausible and align with industry trends. However, the lack of independent verification and reliance on potentially biased sources diminishes the overall credibility of these claims.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents claims of a significant surge in U.S. prediction market demand and the dominance of Polymarket and Kalshi. However, the heavy reliance on data from Blask, a company with potential vested interests, and the lack of independent verification sources raise concerns about the objectivity and reliability of the information. The overlap with previous reports and the inability to independently verify the quotes further diminish the credibility of the article.
