Avison Young warns that a significant slowdown in new speculative office schemes across Britain’s major regional markets is leading to a supply crunch, pushing up rents and transforming refurbishment trends amidst cautious developer activity.
Avison Young has warned that the shortage of new speculative office schemes across Britain’s nine largest regional markets is becoming more acute, with completions now expected to run well below long-term norms through to 2028. The firm said annual delivery in Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, Newcastle, Leeds, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Glasgow is forecast to average 911,000 sq ft a year, roughly 48% below the 10-year annual average of 1.8 million sq ft.
The agency said the principal constraint is viability, with higher construction and finance costs making both developers and lenders more cautious, even in cities that have traditionally attracted significant regional office investment. In Cardiff and Liverpool, Avison Young said no completions are planned over the next three years, a gap that could further limit choice for occupiers seeking to relocate.
The scarcity of new space has already helped drive rental growth, while competition for top-quality buildings is intensifying. In a mid-year update, Avison Young said the Big Nine markets recorded their strongest first-half take-up since 2019, with 3.7 million sq ft let, 6% above the 10-year average. Bristol, Manchester and Newcastle all outperformed, while occupiers increasingly turned to out-of-town locations to find larger and more flexible floor plates as city-centre Grade A supply tightened. The report also noted prime rents of £45.50 per sq ft in Birmingham and £49 in Bristol.
That demand is also reshaping the type of stock coming forward. According to Avison Young, refurbishment is becoming central to market activity, with occupiers increasingly favouring sustainable buildings that support wellbeing and modern working patterns. Research cited by the firm from CoStar found that 2025 saw the lowest level of construction starts in more than 15 years across ten regional markets, while only about 2.5 million sq ft of office space is currently under construction in the Big Nine. Avison Young expects refurbishment to account for 53% of schemes due for completion in 2026, up from 41% in 2025 and 33% in 2024, and it said rental growth should continue across most markets next year.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article references a report from Avison Young dated July 24, 2025, indicating that the content is relatively recent. However, similar information has been reported by other sources, such as CoStar News on February 18, 2026, which discusses regional office take-up and rental records in cities like Bristol, Birmingham, and Leeds. ([costar.com](https://www.costar.com/article/845452544/regional-office-occupiers-cement-new-normal-take-up-levels?utm_source=openai)) This suggests that the narrative may not be entirely original. Additionally, the article includes a source reference map, which may indicate that the content is repurposed from other materials. Without access to the original Avison Young report, it's challenging to confirm the originality of the content. Therefore, the freshness score is moderate.
Quotes check
Score:
6
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Avison Young's report, such as:
> "We expect refurbishments to continue to help plug the gap left by subdued new build starts." ([costar.com](https://www.costar.com/article/845452544/regional-office-occupiers-cement-new-normal-take-up-levels?utm_source=openai))
However, without access to the original Avison Young report, it's difficult to verify the authenticity of these quotes. The reliance on a single source for these quotes raises concerns about their independent verification. Therefore, the quotes score is moderate.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The article is published on Property Week, a reputable UK-based commercial property news outlet. However, the content heavily relies on a report from Avison Young, a commercial real estate services firm. While Avison Young is a credible source, the article's heavy dependence on their report without additional independent verification raises concerns about potential bias or lack of objectivity. Therefore, the source reliability score is moderate.
Plausibility check
Score:
8
Notes:
The claims about regional office shortages and declining completions align with broader industry trends and reports from other sources, such as CoStar News. However, the lack of independent verification and potential reliance on a single source for these claims introduces some uncertainty. Therefore, the plausibility score is high.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information on regional office shortages and declining completions, primarily sourced from Avison Young's report. However, the lack of access to the original report and heavy reliance on a single source without independent verification raises concerns about the content's accuracy and reliability. Therefore, the overall assessment is a FAIL with medium confidence.
